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Climate envelope modeling for evaluating anticipated effects of climate change on threatened and endangered species in the Greater Everglades

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Metadata:


Identification_Information:
Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator:
Stephanie S. Romañach, Laura A. Brandt, Leonard Pearlstine, Donald L. DeAngelis, Ikuko Fujisaki, Frank J. Mazzotti
Publication_Date: 2010
Title:
Climate envelope modeling for evaluating anticipated effects of climate change on threatened and endangered species in the Greater Everglades
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Project
Online_Linkage:
<https://sofia.usgs.gov/projects/index.php?project_url=climateenvmodeling>
Description:
Abstract:
Our proposed project works toward finding solutions to problems related to long-term conservation planning in the face of the uncertainty surrounding climate change. We propose to work with resource managers to develop tools at appropriate spatial and temporal scales to assist with decision making. This project will result in both predictive ecological models and methodology for development and use of climate-based species-habitat relationships that will aid resource managers in long-term planning for sustainability of species.
To demonstrate the process and utility of our proposed approach, we will begin by focusing on the 21 threatened and endangered (T&E) terrestrial vertebrates in South Florida. By virtue of its physical features and geography, Florida, and in particular, South Florida will be highly susceptible to climate changes, specifically with regard to already apparent sea level rise. Although methodology and developed products will be applicable to other species and regions, our initial focus is to work with partners in the southeastern region and expand the list of species of interest in that region.
For each species we will use existing information for these 21 T&E species (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1999, Cox et al. 1994), augment it with up-to-date data, and identify critical limiting factors directly and indirectly influenced by climate change. This information will be provided in the form of databases, species models (including climate envelopes), maps, and a desktop application that can be used in conjunction with projections of climate change, land use, and vegetation change to examine potential impacts on T&E species and their habitats.
Recent attention to potential impacts of climate change on habitats and species has focused on development of methods and tools that not only address current habitat and landscape conditions for species, but also help resource managers to look at potential future conditions to aid in long-term planning. Key elements to our proposed work are identifying limiting factors for species with respect to their habitats, compiling and applying population and habitat models, explicitly addressing uncertainties (assumption-driven research), and developing species habitat decision support. Data collected will be useful as inputs for efforts to assess species vulnerability.
Purpose:
Specific Relevance to Major Unanswered Questions and Information Needs Identified:
- Our project will contribute greatly toward meeting needs of resource managers, in line with USGS' Strategic Science Direction, 'The USGS scientists will meet the pressing needs of the U.S. Department of the Interior, policymakers, and resource managers for scientifically valid state-of-the-science information and predictive understanding of climate change and its effects. Studies of the interactions among climate, earth surface processes, and ecosystems across space and time will contribute directly to the strategic goals of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.' - Our products and collaborative process will help with efforts to develop a national strategy for assisting fish and wildlife in adapting to climate change. This process will work toward meeting Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) goals outlined in their draft climate change strategy and 5-year action plan. In particular, this information will assist with the goals and objectives in the draft of Adaptation and Planning and Delivering Landscape Conservation; we will provide information that can be used in a landscape conservation approach to identify key areas that must be conserved to account for climate change impacts. - Our project will assist National Park Service (NPS) with their mandates to manage for ecosystems, not for biographic islands, and to achieve management objectives through the use of science.
Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date: 1991
Ending_Date: unknown
Currentness_Reference: ground condition
Status:
Progress: In work
Maintenance_and_Update_Frequency: Unknown
Spatial_Domain:
Bounding_Coordinates:
West_Bounding_Coordinate: -81.25
East_Bounding_Coordinate: -80.375
North_Bounding_Coordinate: 25.375
South_Bounding_Coordinate: 24.875
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: None
Theme_Keyword: model
Theme_Keyword: threatened species
Theme_Keyword: endangered species
Theme_Keyword: climate change
Theme_Keyword: limiting factors
Theme_Keyword: habitat
Theme_Keyword: biology
Theme_Keyword: ecology
Theme_Keyword: mapping
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme_Keyword: biota
Theme_Keyword: environment
Theme_Keyword: climatology/meterology/atmosphere
Place:
Place_Keyword_Thesaurus:
Department of Commerce, 1995, Countries, Dependencies, Areas of Special Sovereignty, and Their Principal Administrative Divisions, Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) 10-4, Washington, DC, National Institute of Standards and Technology
Place_Keyword: United States
Place_Keyword: US
Place:
Place_Keyword_Thesaurus:
U.S. Department of Commerce, 1987, Codes for the identification of the States, the District of Columbia and the outlying areas of the United States, and associated areas (Federal Information Processing Standard 5-2): Washington, DC, NIST
Place_Keyword: Florida
Place_Keyword: FL
Place:
Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: None
Place_Keyword: Greater Everglades
Place_Keyword: Southern Florida
Place_Keyword: Southeastern US
Place_Keyword: Central America
Place_Keyword: South America
Place:
Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: USGS Geographic Names Information System
Place_Keyword: Everglades National Park
Taxonomy:
Keywords/Taxon:
Taxonomic_Keyword_Thesaurus: None
Taxonomic_Keywords: mammals
Taxonomic_Keywords: birds
Taxonomic_Keywords: reptiles
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Kingdom
Taxon_Rank_Value: Animalia
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Phylum
Taxon_Rank_Value: Chordata
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subphylum
Taxon_Rank_Value: Vertebrata
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Class
Taxon_Rank_Value: Mammalia
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subclass
Taxon_Rank_Value: Theria
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Infraclass
Taxon_Rank_Value: Eutheria
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Order
Taxon_Rank_Value: Artiodactyla
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Cervidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subfamily
Taxon_Rank_Value: Capreolinae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Odocoileus
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Odocoileus virginianus
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Odocoileus virginianus clavium
Applicable_Common_Name: Key deer
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Order
Taxon_Rank_Value: Carnivora
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Suborder
Taxon_Rank_Value: Feliformia
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Felidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subfamily
Taxon_Rank_Value: Felinae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Puma
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Puma concolor
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Puma concolor couguar
Applicable_Common_Name: eastern cougar
Applicable_Common_Name: eastern puma
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Order
Taxon_Rank_Value: Lagomorpha
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Leporidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Sylvilagus
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subgenus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Sylvilagus (Tapeti)
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Sylvilagus palustris
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Sylvilagus palustris hefneri
Applicable_Common_Name: Lower Keys marsh rabbit
Applicable_Common_Name: Lower Keys rabbit
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Order
Taxon_Rank_Value: Rodentia
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Suborder
Taxon_Rank_Value: Myomorpha
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Muridae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subfamily
Taxon_Rank_Value: Sigmodontinae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Neotoma
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Neotoma floridana
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Neotoma floridana smalli
Applicable_Common_Name: Key Largo woodrat
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Oryzomys
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Oryzomys palustris
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Oryzomys palustris natator
Applicable_Common_Name: rice rat
Applicable_Common_Name: silver rice rat
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Peromyscus
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Peromyscus gossypinus
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Peromyscus gossypinus allapaticola
Applicable_Common_Name: Key Largo cotton mouse
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Peromyscus polionotus
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris
Applicable_Common_Name: southeastern beach mouse
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Phylum
Taxon_Rank_Value: Chordata
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subphylum
Taxon_Rank_Value: Vertebrata
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Class
Taxon_Rank_Value: Aves
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Order
Taxon_Rank_Value: Ciconiiformes
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Accipitridae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subfamily
Taxon_Rank_Value: Accipitrinae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Rostrhamus
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Rostrhamus sociabilis
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus
Applicable_Common_Name: Everglade Snail Kite
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Charadriidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Charadrius
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Charadrius melodus
Applicable_Common_Name: Chorlo chiflador
Applicable_Common_Name: Piping Plover
Applicable_Common_Name: pluvier siffleur
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Ciconiidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Mycteria
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Mycteria americana
Applicable_Common_Name: Wood Stork
Applicable_Common_Name: Cig¸eÒa americana
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Falconidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Caracara
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Caracara cheriway
Applicable_Common_Name: Crested Caracara
Applicable_Common_Name: Northern Crested Caracara
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Laridae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subfamily
Taxon_Rank_Value: Sterninae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Sterna
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Sterna dougallii
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Sterna dougallii dougallii
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Order
Taxon_Rank_Value: Passeriformes
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Corvidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Aphelocoma
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Aphelocoma coerulescens
Applicable_Common_Name: Scrub Jay
Applicable_Common_Name: Chara pecho rayado
Applicable_Common_Name: Florida Scrub Jay
Applicable_Common_Name: Florida Scrub-Jay
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Emberizidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Ammodramus
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Ammodramus maritimus
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis
Applicable_Common_Name: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Ammodramus savannarum
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Ammodramus savannarum floridanus
Applicable_Common_Name: Florida Grasshopper Sparrow
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Order
Taxon_Rank_Value: Piciformes
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Picidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subfamily
Taxon_Rank_Value: Picinae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Picoides
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Picoides borealis
Applicable_Common_Name: Red-cockaded Woodpecker
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Class
Taxon_Rank_Value: Reptilia
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Order
Taxon_Rank_Value: Crocodilia
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Crocodylidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Crocodylus
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Crocodylus acutus
Applicable_Common_Name: American Crocodile
Applicable_Common_Name: Cocodrilo americano
Applicable_Common_Name: caiman de la costa
Applicable_Common_Name: Central American alligator
Applicable_Common_Name: cocodrilo
Applicable_Common_Name: lagarto
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Order
Taxon_Rank_Value: Squamata
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Suborder
Taxon_Rank_Value: Autarchoglossa
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Scincidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Eumeces
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Eumeces egregius
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Eumeces egregius lividus
Applicable_Common_Name: Blue-tailed Mole Skink
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Neoseps
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Neoseps reynoldsi
Applicable_Common_Name: Florida Sand Skink
Applicable_Common_Name: Sand Skink
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Suborder
Taxon_Rank_Value: Serpentes
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Infraorder
Taxon_Rank_Value: Alethinophidia
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Colubridae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Drymarchon
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Drymarchon couperi
Applicable_Common_Name: Eastern Indigo Snake
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subfamily
Taxon_Rank_Value: Natricinae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Nerodia
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Nerodia clarkii
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subspecies
Taxon_Rank_Value: Nerodia clarkii taeniata
Applicable_Common_Name: Atlantic Salt Marsh Snake
Access_Constraints: none
Use_Constraints: none
Point_of_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: Stephanie S. Romanach
Contact_Organization: U.S. Geological Survey
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: 3205 College Ave.
City: Davie
State_or_Province: FL
Postal_Code: 33314
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: (754) 264-6060
Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: (954) 475-4125
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: sromanach@usgs.gov
Data_Set_Credit: FWS, NPS, University of Florida
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Beaumont L. J., A. J. Pitman, M. Poulsen, and L. Hughes
Publication_Date: 2007
Title:
Where will species go? Incorporating new advance in climate modelling into projections of species distributions
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Publication
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Global Change Biology
Issue_Identification: v. 13, n 7, P. 1368-1385
Other_Citation_Details: accessed as of 08/25/2011
Online_Linkage:
The full article is available via journal subscription or single article purchase. The abstract may be viewed at the website below.
Online_Linkage:
<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01357.x/abstract>
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Breiman, L.
Publication_Date: 2001
Title: Random Forests
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Publication
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Machine Learning
Issue_Identification: v. 45, n. 1, P. 5-32
Other_Citation_Details: accessed as of 08/25/2011
Online_Linkage:
The full article is available via journal subscription or single article purchase. The abstract may be viewed at the website below.
Online_Linkage: <http://www.springerlink.com/content/u0p06167n6173512/>
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Cox, J., Kautz, R., MacLaughlin, M. and Gilbert, T.
Publication_Date: 1994
Title:
Closing the Gaps in Florida's Wildlife Habitat Conservation System. Office of Environmental Services
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Publication
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Tallahassee, FL
Publisher: Florida Game and Fresh Water Fish Commission
Other_Citation_Details: accessed as of 08/25/2011
Online_Linkage:
<http://research.myfwc.com/publications/publication_info.asp?id=48583>
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator:
Huntley, B. R. E. Green, Y. C. Collingham, J. K. Hill, S. G. Willis, P. J. Bartlein, W. Cramer, W. J. M. Hagemeijer, and C. J. Thomas
Publication_Date: 2004
Title:
The performance of models relating species geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Publication
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Ecology Letters
Issue_Identification: v. 7, n. 5. P. 417 - 426
Other_Citation_Details: accessed as of 08/25/2011
Online_Linkage:
The full article is available via journal subscription or single article purchase. The abstract may be viewed at the website below.
Online_Linkage:
<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00598.x/abstract>
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Jiguet F., A. Gadot, R. Julliard, S. Newson, and D. Couvet
Publication_Date: 2007
Title:
Climate envelope, life history traits and the resilience of birds facing global change
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Publication
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Global Change Biology
Issue_Identification: v. 13, n. 8, P. 1673-1685
Other_Citation_Details: accessed as of 08/25/2011
Online_Linkage:
The full article is available via journal subscription or single article purchase. The abstract may be viewed at the website below.
Online_Linkage:
<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01386.x/abstract>
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Lawler J. J., D. White, R. P. Neilson, and A. R. Blaustein
Publication_Date: 2006
Title:
Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Publication
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Global Change Biology
Issue_Identification: v. 12, n. 8, P. 1568-1584
Other_Citation_Details: accessed as of 08/25/2011
Online_Linkage:
The full article is available via journal subscription or single article purchase. The abstract may be viewed at the website below.
Online_Linkage:
<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01191.x/abstract>
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator:
Thomas, C.D., A. Cameron, R.E. Green, M. Bakkenes, L.J. Beaumont, Y.C. Collingham, B.F.N. Erasmus, M. Ferreira de Siqueira, A. Grainger, L. Hannah, L. Hughes, B. Huntley, A.S. van Jaarsveld, G.F. Midgley, L. Miles, M.A. Ortega-Huerta, A.T. Peterson, O.L. Phillips, S.E. Williams
Publication_Date: 2004
Title: Extinction risk from climate change
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Publication
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Nature
Issue_Identification: v. 427, n. 6970, P. 145-148
Other_Citation_Details: accessed as of 08/25/2011
Online_Linkage:
The full article is available via journal subscription or single article purchase. The abstract may be viewed at the website below.
Online_Linkage:
<http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v427/n6970/abs/nature02121.html>
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Thuiller, W., S. Lavorel, M.B. Araujo
Publication_Date: 2005
Title:
Niche properties and geographical extent as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Publication
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Global Ecology and Biogeography
Issue_Identification: v. 14, n. 4, P. 347-357
Other_Citation_Details: accessed as of 08/25/2011
Online_Linkage:
The full article is available via journal subscription or single article purchase. The abstract may be viewed at the website below.
Online_Linkage:
<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00162.x/abstract>
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Pearson, R.G. and T.P. Dawson
Publication_Date: 2003
Title:
Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Publication
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Global Ecology & Biogeography
Issue_Identification: v. 12, n. 5, P. 361-371
Other_Citation_Details: accessed as of 08/25/2011
Online_Linkage:
The full article is available via journal subscription or single article purchase. The abstract may be viewed at the website below.
Online_Linkage:
<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2003.00042.x/abstract>
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Publication_Date: 1999
Title: South Florida Multi-Species Recovery Plan
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Publication
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Atlanta, GA
Publisher: USFW
Other_Citation_Details: accessed as of 08/25/2011
Online_Linkage: <http://www.fws.gov/verobeach/ListedSpeciesMSRP.html>
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Drake, J.M. & J.M. Bossenbroek
Publication_Date: Unknown
Title:
Profiling ecosystem vulnerability to invasion by zebra mussels with support vector machines
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Publication
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Theoretical Ecology
Issue_Identification: v. 2, n. 4, P. 189-198
Other_Citation_Details: accessed as of 08/25/2011
Online_Linkage:
The full article is available via journal subscription or single article purchase. The abstract may be viewed at the website below.
Online_Linkage: <http://www.springerlink.com/content/f4725u316762l013/>

Data_Quality_Information:
Logical_Consistency_Report:
In our effort to develop appropriate models for resource managers' needs, we will use the best and most up-to-date information and methods available. For each of the T&E species under consideration, we will develop bioclimatic models, also called 'climate envelope' models or 'niche' models. These models allow us to relate species' geographic distributions to climate factors. Determining the niche of a species allows its potential geographic range to be forecast through projection of the estimated niche boundary on a spatial domain (Drake & Bossenbroek 2009).
Completeness_Report:
In year one; however funding is limited. At the end of FY10, we will submit a database with life history, range, habitat associations, and vulnerability traits for each species; compiled land cover/habitat information; and results of a comparison of modeling methods (support vector machine vs. random forests) for 1 - 3 case study species. We will submit a progress report of our work for the first half of FY10.
Lineage:
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
This project will compile the most up-to-date information on the 21 T&E, non-marine, vertebrate species in South Florida using existing literature and databases and workshops of ecological experts (Year 1).
Climate data will be compiled from sources that provide reliable data at the appropriate resolution (e.g., National Climatic Data Center, Worldclim database [1 km resolution]). Climate variables used will be determined by information collected on the species and may include degree-days, temperature and precipitation averages, extremes, ranges, and seasonal averages. (Years 1&2).
Land cover/habitat information will be compiled from a variety of sources and then associations/linkages will be made among classes in the various layers (i.e., cross-walking; Year 1).
This information will form the basis for developing climate envelope models, a tool used to examine potential species range shifts under climate change scenarios. Climate envelope models are used to predict the distribution of a species in the future if it is to live in the same range of climatic conditions that it currently inhabits.
We will define climate envelopes over the entire geographic distribution and project those envelopes based on alternative futures (e.g., IPCC projection for 2100) for each species (Years 2&3).
Maps for the entire geographic range of each species will be compiled and overlaid with broad land cover layers to determine presence of suitable habitat within each grid cell. Climate data will be associated with species presence and absence at each cell and a nonparametric regression tree approach, random forest predictors (Breiman 2001), will be used to correlate climate variables with species presence/absence. Twenty percent of the presence/absence data will be withheld from the modeling to use for model validation (Years 2&3).
At the South Florida scale, climate envelopes will be combined with land cover and habitat models refined in technical workshops and used with local alternative future conditions being developed by MIT/USGS (Year 3).
Drs. Leonard Pearlstine (NPS), Steve Friedman (NPS), and Laura Brandt (FWS) will participate in workshops, data gathering, and providing guidance to this project. Matthew Supernaw (NPS) will work closely with UF/USGS programmers to implement the models.
Process_Date: Unknown
Process_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: Stephanie S. Romanach
Contact_Organization: U.S. Geological Survey
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: 3205 College Ave.
City: Davie
State_or_Province: FL
Postal_Code: 33314
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: (754) 264-6060
Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: (954) 475-4125
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: sromanach@usgs.gov
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
Tasks for FY10:
- Compile map layers of current species' geographic ranges - Begin compiling database of climate information important for species geographic range limits (e.g., temperature, precipitation) - Compile map layers of land cover/habitat for species geographic ranges - Comparison of potential modeling methods (e.g., support vector machines, random forests models) using 1 - 3 species as test cases - Progress (semi-annual) and final (annual) reports
Process_Date: 2010
Process_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: Stephanie S. Romanach
Contact_Organization: U.S. Geological Survey
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: 3205 College Ave.
City: Davie
State_or_Province: FL
Postal_Code: 33314
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: (754) 264-6060
Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: (954) 475-4125
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: sromanach@usgs.gov

Metadata_Reference_Information:
Metadata_Date: 20110819
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: Heather Henkel
Contact_Organization: U.S. Geological Survey
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical
Address: 600 Fourth Street South
City: St. Petersburg
State_or_Province: FL
Postal_Code: 33701
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: 727 803-8747 ext 3028
Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: 727 803-2030
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: sofia-metadata@usgs.gov
Metadata_Standard_Name:
FGDC Biological Data Profile of the Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version: FGDC-STD-001.1-1999
Metadata_Access_Constraints: None.
Metadata_Use_Constraints:
This metadata record may have been copied from the SOFIA website and may not be the most recent version. Please check <https://sofia.usgs.gov/metadata> to be sure you have the most recent version.

Generated by mp version 2.9.14 on Tue Oct 25 15:25:13 2011