Determining Target Salinity Values for Restoration of the Estuaries of the Greater Everglades

Project Investigator: G. Lynn Wingard Project Personnel: Christopher Bernhardt, Frank Marshall, Bethany Stackhouse, Anna Wachnicka Project Start Date: 2006 End Date: 2015 Recent Funding: (FY14) USGS GE PES, (FY13) USGS GE PES, (FY12) USGS GE PES, (FY11) USGS GE PES, (FY10) USGS GE PES Work Plans Project Summaries Data Metadata Publications Photos Project Location Map

The primary objective of this project is to provide information to CERP managers (specifically the Southern Coastal Systems (SCS) Sub-team of the Regional Evaluation Team of RECOVER) that can be used to establish target salinity values and performance measures for the estuaries and coastal ecosystems, and to estimate the freshwater stage and flow in the wetlands required to produce the historical salinity patterns. This work builds upon previous work in Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay, and information derived from the Ecosystem History Synthesis Project (completed 2007).

There are three areas of focus for this task.

1. Refine our existing modern analog data set by completing analyses of modern samples collected between 1996 and 2012, obtaining additional modern samples where necessary, and applying these improved analog data to core data compiled in the Ecosystem History Synthesis Project.
2. Collect new cores (if necessary) or examine existing archived cores within the southern estuaries to fill in information gaps identified by the land management agencies (Everglades National Park (ENP) and Biscayne National Park (BNP)), and by the Southern Coastal Systems Sub-team.
3. Work with our collaborator/contractor, Dr. Frank Marshall, to couple paleosalinity estimates based on the core analyses with linear regression models that can hindcast stage, flow and hydropatterns in the terrestrial Everglades, and salinity in the estuaries, based on equations developed from observed water monitoring station data.

These efforts, when combined with our 'Sea Level Rise and Climate: Impacts on the Greater Everglades Ecosystem and Restoration' Project, will ultimately lead to the ability to forecast future changes and develop salinity targets for estuaries for the CERP 2030/2050 Plans that incorporate natural hydrologic relationships and sea level rise, and take into account future altered conditions under various IPCC scenarios. These data can be used to help select minimum flows and levels for the wetlands. The estuaries of South Florida are not only a 'living laboratory of change' but they provide the record of past changes that allow us to forecast the direction of future change.

Work Plans

• 2007
• 2008
• 2009
• 2010
• 2012
• 2014

Project Summaries

• 2007

Data

Metadata

• Determining Target Salinity Values for South Florida's Estuaries: The Combined Effects of Climate, Sea Level, and Water Management Practices (project metadata)
• 1995 - 2007 Ecosystem History of South Florida's Estuaries Database (data set metadata)
• 2008 - Present Ecosystem History of South Florida's Estuaries Database (data set metadata)

Publications

Abstracts

• A Comparison of the Pre-drainage Everglades Hydrology and Florida Bay Salinity Based on Paleoecology from Multiple Sediment Cores Coupled with Statistical Models (from the Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems Science Conference, December 2008)
• Verification of a Molluscan Dataset for Paleosalinity Estimation Using Modern Analogues: A Tool for Restoration of South Florida's Estuaries (from the Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems Science Conference, December 2008)

Fact Sheets

• Estuaries of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem: Laboratories of Long-term Change (Fact Sheet 2010-3047) (Available from the U.S. Geological Survey Publications website)

Journal Articles

• A Simulation of Historic Hydrology and Salinity in Everglades National Park: Coupling Paleoecologic Assemblage Data with Regression Models (published in Estuaries and Coasts, and available from SpringerLink)
• Application of a Weighted-Averaging Method for Determining Paleosalinity: A Tool for Restoration of South Florida's Estuaries
• Estimates of Natural Salinity and Hydrology in a Subtropical Estuarine Ecosystem: Implications for Greater Everglades Restoration (available from Springer Link website)

Open File Reports

• Chronology from Sediment Cores Collected in Southwestern Everglades National Park, Florida (OFR 2012-1275, available from the U.S. Geological Survey website)
• Evidence of Environmental Change in Rankin Basin, Central Florida Bay, Everglades National Park (OFR 2010-1125)
• Florida Bay Salinity and Everglades Wetlands Hydrology circa 1900 CE: A Compilation of Paleoecology-Based Statistical Modeling Analyses (OFR 2012-1054, available from the U.S. Geological Survey website)
• U.S. Geological Survey Science Support Strategy for Biscayne National Park and Surrounding Areas in Southeastern Florida (OFR 2007-1288, available from the U.S. Geological Survey website)

Photos

• Ecosystem History of South Florida Estuaries Photo Gallery