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Project Summary Sheet

U.S. Geological Survey, Greater Everglades Science Program: Place-Based Studies

Fiscal Year 2002 Project Summary Sheet

Project: Mangrove Modeling of Landscape, Stand-Level, and Soil-Nutrient Processes for the ATLSS Program and Everglades Restoration Project

Web Sites: ATLSS.ORG

Location (Subregions & Counties): The total system

Funding (Source): USGS Place-Based Studies

Principal Investigator: Thomas W. Doyle, U.S. Geological Survey, National Wetland Research Center 700 Cajundome Road, Lafayette, Louisiana 70506 Tom_Doyle@usgs.gov; Dr. Robert R. Twilley, University of Louisiana at Lafayette. PO Box 42451 email:rtwilley@louisiana.edu PH: (337) 482 6146 FAX: (337) 482 5834

Project Personnel: Donald L. DeAngelis, Phone: 305-284-1690 e-mail: ddeangelis@umiami.ir.miami.edu

Supporting Organizations: USGS/BRD, NPS, ACE, EPA

Associated / Linked Projects: Component of ATLSS Program

Overview & Status: Land-margin ecosystems (mangrove forests, brackish marshes, and coastal lakes) comprise some 40% of Everglades National Park. They support the important detrital foodwebs, fisheries, and wading bird colonies of the coastal zone. These systems are at the receiving end for the water management decisions made upstream which will impact the spatial distribution, timing, and quantity of freshwater flow. Additional factors which are important include disturbance history related to hurricanes and potential effects of projected sea-level rise. This project integrates the suite of spatial simulation models necessary to evaluate the response of land-margin ecosystems to upstream water management. Included are algorithms and databases of critical processes and spatio-temporal relations operating at the landscape, stand-level, and soil interface. These process and modeling studies are critical to the extended applications of the ATLSS and ELM modeling programs into the land-margin ecosystems of the Everglades. This project provides an integrated suite of vegetation and nutrient resource models of the land-margin ecosystem compatible with and undergirding other restoration models of hydrology and higher trophic levels identified as critical by the South Florida Restoration Taskforce. Spatial forest simulation models (Doyle 1997, Doyle and Girod 1997) and ecological and nutrient models (Chen and Twilley 1998, Chen and Twilley 1999) have been developed for south Florida mangrove communities that with additional empirical inputs and modifications need to be applied to address the success of proposed freshwater restoration alternatives for maintaining and restoring ecology of the parks and refuges in south Florida.

Needs & Products: Models need to be integrated with other simulation models of hydrology and higher trophic population models developed under the ATLSS program as part of the Everglades Restoration Program under the Critical Ecosystem Study Initiative (CESI). Modest changes in freshwater delivery are expected to alter the hydrologic balance and vegetative complement and boundaries of land-margin communities. Ecosystem models are needed to predict, and identify sensitive attributes of, vegetation response in relation to hydrological changes. Concurrent field and experimental studies are needed to provide parameter inputs and data for model development and testing.

Application to Everglades Restoration: This modeling project fills the gaps and needs of existing restoration models, ELM and ATLSS, for a vegetation and nutrient dynamics component and complements continuing empirical studies within the land-margin ecosystem of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program.

Study Milestones
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Familiarity         x x          
Design           x          
Field Work             x o o o  
Data Analysis             x o o o  
Initial Reporting             x        
Quality Assurance               o o o  
Results Published               o o o  
Synthesis                   o  
Note: "x" indicates task completed during quarter, and "o" indicates task planned, but not completed

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