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Tides and Inflows in the Mangrove Ecotone (TIME) Model Development

Project Proposal for 2001

Continuing Project Work Plan - FY2001

IDENTIFYING INFORMATION
Project Title: Tides and Inflows in the Mangrove Ecotone (TIME) Model Development
Ecosystem: South Florida

Project start date: October 1, 1999
Project end date: September 30, 2002

Project Chief(s): Raymond W. Schaffranek (USGS/WRD), Harry L. Jenter (USGS/WRD), Eric D. Swain (USGS/WRD), Christian D. Langevin (USGS/WRD), and Kevin Kotun (NPS/ENP)
Email/Phone/FAX: RWS - rws@usgs.gov / (703)648-5891 / (703)648-5484, HLJ - hjenter@usgs.gov, EDS - edswain@usgs.gov, CDL – langevin@usgs.gov, KK - Kevin_Kotun@nps.gov / (305)242-7829
Mail Address: RWS - National Center MS 430, Reston, VA 20192; HLJ - National Center MS 430, Reston, VA 20192; EDS - 9100 N.W. 36th St., Suite 107, Miami, FL 33178; CDL - 9100 N.W. 36th St., Suite 107, Miami, FL 33178; KK - SFNRC, 40001 State Road 9336, Homestead, FL 33034

Program(s): Place-Based Studies

Task/Project: Task 2/Project 2.5(westward extension)

BACKGROUND NARRATIVE
Project summary: A critical objective of the south Florida ecosystem restoration effort is to preserve ecological conditions that are consistent with habitat requirements. The duration, timing, and extent of wetland inundation in the southern Everglades have been greatly distorted as evidenced by shifts in biologic and vegetative species. Both regulatory and natural factors contribute to the definition of hydroperiods making their precise evaluation and management difficult. This complexity is particularly problematic in the transition zone between the Everglades wetlands and coastal embayments encompassing the mangrove ecotone where freshwater inflow effects on salinities must also be considered. In order to correctly and sufficiently investigate flow affects on both hydroperiods and embayment salinities neither hydrologic processes affecting flows in the wetlands nor the dynamic effects of external forces such as tides and winds can be ignored. This project entails translation of findings from the Southern Inland and Coastal Systems (SICS) project and extension of the model westward to resolve boundary limitations and to enable concurrent analysis of wetland and tidal response throughout the entire saltwater-freshwater interface zone along the Gulf coast and Florida Bay. Extension of the SICS model westward will require the addition of continuous monitoring stations to supplement data from coastal creek stations and control structures needed to provide boundary conditions as well as the synoptic measurement of flows and water levels in the wetlands for use in model calibration and verification.

Problem statement: Development and use of this model will serve to address several key questions pertaining to restoration efforts. How do the southern Everglades wetlands and tidal mangrove zone respond concurrently to inflow regulation? What changes in wetland hydroperiods and coastal salinities are likely to occur in response to various restoration scenarios? What are external dynamic forcing factors that could adversely affect regulatory plans and what is their likely significance? This project effort will build on fundamental studies conducted by the project co-leaders (Schaffranek, 1999a; Jenter, 1999; Swain, 1999) and other scientists (Schaffranek, 1999b; Schaffranek et al, 1999) in support of the SICS model development as part of the USGS south Florida ecosystem program.

Project objectives and strategy: This project is focused on further developing, extending, implementing, and using a mathematical model to study the interaction between wetland sheet flows and dynamic forces in the transition zone between the southern Everglades and its coastal embayments. The model will be used to study and evaluate the combined response of hydroperiods in the wetlands and salinities in the mangrove ecotone to inflow alterations. The project effort will include 1) monitoring hydrologic processes and dynamic forces to develop an improved understanding of them individually and of their interaction, 2) translating this information and prior knowledge of processes gleaned from the SICS project into improved empirical expressions and mathematical equations to better represent the processes both individually and collectively, 3) transforming these expressions and their correlation to ecosystem properties into numerical algorithms, 4) integrating these algorithms into an existing numerical model framework, 5) implementing the model to the transition zone of the Everglades that encompasses the mangrove ecotone using collected data to define critical ecosystem properties such as land-surface elevations, vegetative characteristics, etc., 6) calibrating the model using time series of water-level and flow data collected at strategic intermediate internal points, 7) using the model to investigate and quantify the interrelation of wetland and tidal flows in the transition zone in response to real and hypothesized temporal and spatial variations in inflows, and 8) documenting the model implementation and any findings using it that are critical to improved management of the ecosystem.

Potential impacts and major products: The major product of this project will be a sound physically-based fine-resolution (500 m) model of the Everglades National Park area of the Everglades consistent with the Across Trophic Level System Simulation models that can be used as a research tool and management model to study and evaluate ecosystem response to regulatory decisions. Through analysis of model results for varied inflows, cause and effect relationships to ecosystem functions and sustainability can be investigated to evaluate and guide restoration actions. Any external dynamic factors that could adversely affect restoration objectives will be identified and demonstrated. Data collected in support of the model development will be made available for dissemination via the Internet and scientific findings will be reported in traditional peer-reviewed literature as appropriate.

ACCOMPLISHMENTS, OUTCOMES, AND PRODUCTS
FY 1999 scientific accomplishments:

  • C-111 overbank flow data analyzed and reported.
  • Flow dynamics in SICS area simulated for two selected long-term periods.
  • Significance of wind, ET, frictional resistance, surface/groundwater exchange, and other hydrologic processes investigated.
  • Velocity and water-quality data posted on SOFIA data exchange website.


FY 1999 products completed:

  • Schaffranek, R. W., 1999a, Analysis of sheet flows to Florida Bay from C-111 canal, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-181, pp 98-99.
  • Schaffranek, R. W., 1999b, Hydrologic studies in support of south Florida ecosystem restoration, Proceedings 26th Annual ASCE Water Resources Planning and Management Division Conference, 8 p.
  • Swain, E. D., 1999, Two-dimensional simulation of flow and transport to Florida Bay through the southern inland and coastal system, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-181, pp 108-109.


FY 1999 outreach activities:

  • SICS poster displayed at South Florida Restoration Science Forum, May 17-19, 1999, Boca Raton, FL.
  • Paper "Hydrologic studies in support of south Florida ecosystem restoration" presented at 26th Annual ASCE Water Resources Planning and Management Division Conference.
  • USGS Sessions on "Interdisciplinary Assessment of the Hydrology and Hydrologic Processes of the Southern Everglades Ecosystem" organized for 3rd International Symposium on Ecohydraulics.


FY2000 scientific accomplishments:

  • A workshop was held with ecologists from the USGS Biological Resources Division and developers of the Across Trophic Level System Simulation (ATLSS) model to identify hydrological needs of ongoing estuarine ecological species studies and to develop information linkages between the SICS and TIME hydrological models and ATLSS. A two-year hydrological simulation was generated using the SICS model and has been provided to the ATLSS modelers for integration and development of individual estuarine species components.
  • A two-day interdivisional (Biological Resources, Geologic, National Mapping and Water Resources Divisions) workshop was convened with participation from more than twenty south Florida ecosystem projects. A comprehensive plan identifying process-study and field-monitoring needs for TIME model design, support, and development was formulated at the workshop and is being circulated for review and comment.
  • In preparation for design and setup of numerical simulation scenarios, a website (http://time.er.usgs.gov) with a database repository for compilation of input data and sharing of model results has been constructed. The TIME database has been populated with data from more than 100 stations for 1995 to present (TIME Data Page of http://time.er.ugsg.gov).
  • SICS process-study papers presented at the International Association of Hydraulic Research Third International Symposium on Ecohydraulics were put online at the TIME website (What’s New Page of http://time.er.ugsg.gov).
  • Graphical displays of wetland flow measurements conducted in September 1997 and 1999 in the C-111 basin were put online at the TIME website (What’s New Page of http://time.er.ugsg.gov) and the collected velocity and water-quality data were stored in the SOFIA (http://sofia.usgs.gov) website.
  • Flow data for approximately 70 openings under Tamiami Trial (approximately 60 miles) have been compiled for water years 1987-1999. The data have been manually entered into a spreadsheet which is being prepared for TIME model use and distribution to the south Florida scientific community via the SOFIA (http://sofia.usgs.gov) website.
  • A numerical algorithm has been designed and developed to link the SWIFT2D model with the SEAWAT transport variant of MODFLOW. The numerical scheme, designed to synchronize SWIFT2D tidal-compatible time steps with SEAWAT stress periods, is undergoing initial testing.
  • A MODFLOW grid and model component is under development for coupling to the SICS grid and model. In conjunction with an extension of the SICS boundary northward to be compatible with S-332 structure releases and the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM) grid, the ground/surface-water model coupling is intended to resolve boundary limitation uses of the SICS model.
  • A flow monitoring station has been established near the wetland/tidal interface of Shark River to determine the feasibility of long term acoustic Doppler flow measurements in heavily vegetated areas. Acoustic Doppler velocity data from the station have been collected, compiled, and analyzed to confirm the quality of data return.
  • Initial ground-truthing of vegetation classifications determined from remote sensing imagery has begun in support of the TIME model by the USGS National Mapping Division (NMD) Land Characteristics from Remote Sensing Project, John W. Jones project chief.
  • A preliminary and partial land-surface elevation grid of the TIME model domain has been generated from helicopter Aerial Height Finder (AHF) survey data collected by the NMD High Accuracy Elevation Data Collection Project, Gregory B. Desmond project chief.


Pending:


FY2000 products completed:

  • Ball, M. H., and Schaffranek, R. W., 2000, Flow-Velocity Data Collected in the Wetlands Adjacent to Canal C-111 in South Florida during 1997 and 1999, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-56, 60 p.
  • Jenter, H. L., and Duff, M. P., 1999, Wind-Driven Flow in Shallow Waters with Emergent Vegetation, Proceedings of Third International Symposium on Ecohydraulics, IAHR, July 1999.
  • Schaffranek, R. W., Ruhl, H. A., and Hansler, M. E., 1999, An Overview of the Southern Inland and Coastal System Project of the U. S. Geological Survey South Florida Ecosystem Program, Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Ecohydraulics, IAHR, July 1999.
  • Swain, E. D., 1999, Numerical Representation of Dynamic Flow and Transport at the Everglades/Florida Bay Interface, Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Ecohydraulics, IAHR, July 1999.


Pending:

  • Swain, E. D., 2000, "Two-Dimensional Simulation of Flow and Transport to Florida Bay Through the Southern Inland and Coastal Systems (SICS)" – WRIR Report in review July 2000.
  • Jenter, H. L., and Schaffranek, R. W., 2000, "Observations of Diurnal Temperature Variations in Shallow Waters with Emergent Vegetation" to be submitted to Wetlands (Journal of the Society of Wetland Scientists) – Journal article in review May 2001.


FY2000 outreach activities:

  • Schaffranek and Jenter displayed SICS poster at Florida Bay Science Conference, Nov. 1-5, 1999, Key Largo, FL.
  • Swain displayed poster on "Latest verification and simulation results from SICS model" at Florida Bay Science Conference, Nov. 1-5, 1999, Key Largo, FL.
  • CESI Science Advisory Committee for Hydrologic Modeling in the Greater Everglades (Schaffranek, Co-Chair)
  • CESI Science Advisory Committee for High Density Topography (Jenter, USGS member)
  • Schaffranek participated in the "Standard Dataset Workshop" of the Science Program for Florida bay and Adjacent Marine Systems (16 March 2000). The USGS provided hydrology data from individual SICS process and modeling studies to the Program Management Committee for Florida Bay. USGS data were contributed from studies by Patino (discharge into NE Florida Bay), Smith (Mangrove Hydrology Project), Schaffranek (flow velocities south of the C-111 canal) and Swain (SWIFT2D/SICS modeling). The data will be incorporated into the Uniform Modeling Dataset being developed pursuant to the Hobbie report. This dataset will be the standard used by USCOE, NPS, NOAA, SFWMD and university scientists in constructing hydrological models of Florida Bay.
  • Schaffranek, Swain, and Langevin participated in discussions and gave TIME, SICS, and SEAWAT model presentations at the Florida Bay Models Coordination Meeting (15 May 2000) at the invitation of the Florida Bay PMC.


Bibliography:

  • Ball, M. H., and Schaffranek, R. W., 2000, Flow-Velocity Data Collected in the Wetlands Adjacent to Canal C-111 in South Florida during 1997 and 1999, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-56, 60 p.
  • Duff, M. P., and Jenter, H. L., 2000, Abstract: Real Time Data Web Pages of the "Tides and Inflows in the Mangroves of the Everglades" Research Project, AGU Spring Meeting, March 2000 (EOS Proceedings).
  • Jenter, H. L., and Duff, M. P., 1999, Wind-Driven Flow in Shallow Waters with Emergent Vegetation, Proceedings of Third International Symposium on Ecohydraulics, IAHR, July 1999.
  • Jenter, H. L., 1999, Laboratory experiments for evaluating the effects of wind forcing on shallow waters in emergent vegetation, Proceedings of the Coastal Ocean Processes Symposium: A Tribute to William D. Grant, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Technical Report No. 99-04, Woods Hole, MA.
  • Schaffranek, R. W., 1999a, Analysis of sheet flows to Florida Bay from C-111 canal, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-181, pp 98-99.
  • Schaffranek, R. W., 1999b, Hydrologic studies in support of south Florida ecosystem restoration, Proceedings 26th Annual ASCE Water Resources Planning and Management Division Conference, 8 p.
  • Schaffranek, R. W., Ruhl, H. A., and Hansler, M. E., 1999, An Overview of the Southern Inland and Coastal System Project of the U. S. Geological Survey South Florida Ecosystem Program, Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Ecohydraulics, IAHR, July 1999.
  • Swain, E. D., 1999, Numerical Representation of Dynamic Flow and Transport at the Everglades/Florida Bay Interface, Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Ecohydraulics, IAHR, July 1999.
  • Swain, E. D., 1999, Two-dimensional simulation of flow and transport to Florida Bay through the southern inland and coastal system, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-181, pp 108-109.


WORK PLAN:

FY 2001 activities:

1) Construct expanded model grid that has eastern boundaries of L-31N canal, C-111 canal, and the northern Keys; southern boundary in Florida Bay; western boundary along Whitewater Bay, Ponce De Leon Bay, the Gulf coast, and US 29; and northern boundary at Tamiami Trail. This grid will initially be populated with existing and preliminary data for land elevations, boundary conditions, frictional terms, etc.
2) Update the model as new data becomes available for: land surface elevations, boundary flows and water levels, friction terms, ET, ground-water recharge, and comparison data for internal flows.
3) Implement explicit connection to groundwater model for entire grid. The interface of the two models will be external to the respective Fortran codes. A script will control the execution and information transfer. The interface will be tested on initial data.
4) Conduct calibration and sensitivity analysis with analytic tools specifically designed for this purpose as data becomes available. Model input parameter uncertainty will be used to define further field study needs.
5) Examine sensitivity of model results to the treatment of convective acceleration terms in the numerical solution.
6) With "final" model-area characterization data, scenarios involving variations in control structure inflows, precipitation effects, sea level rise, and redistribution of boundary flows will be performed. This will yield invaluable information for water managers and researchers.
7) Determine most utilitarian formulation of ET for the model based on process study results.
8) Determine best interpolation scheme for land elevation, wind field, precipitation, and other parameters that vary spatially.
9) Develop and utilize GIS techniques to facilitate data transfer to the model.
10) Compile and organize data from SICS process studies and other agencies to ensure that all available and relevant information is being utilized in the model development.
11) Create a web-based mechanism for communication of model-related data and results to all project scientists.
12) Further refine, update, and populate the web-based mechanism for communication of near-real-time hydrologic conditions throughout the model domain so as to facilitate fieldwork planning.
13) Establish formal data exchange pathways between project scientists, facilitated through a data-manager position listed under Jenter's budget.
14) Deploy portable meteorological instrumentation platforms concurrently with internally-recording Sontek current meters (see Patino workplan) over month-long periods in order to quantify the magnitude and timing of internal flow response to wind forcing, and to translate laboratory results from the SICS project to the broad categorization of vegetation types found in the TIME model domain.
15) Collaborate with John Jones, NMD, in both components (Vegetation Mapping & Optimal Land Surface Field Aggregation) of his Land Characterization from Remote Sensing Project to develop and test the aggregation of land-surface fields (vegetation cover type, density, ET, etc.) to scales appropriate for describing hydrologic processes (resistance, ET) and dynamic forces (wind stress) in the TIME model.
16) Formulate station network plan with Eduardo Patino, WRD, (see Patino workplan) to collect boundary-value, calibration, and verification data for TIME model implementation.

FY 2001 products:

  • Video animation of SICS model results for web distribution - Jenter
  • Documentation of near-real time data exchange website for project scientists – Duff & Jenter
  • Documentation of TIME model with online access – Swain & Langevin
  • Journal article on SWIFT2D and SEAWAT model coupling – Swain & Langevin
  • TIME FACT Sheet – Schaffranek, Jenter, Swain, & Langevin


FY 2001 outreach:

  • Poster presentations at the December 11-15, 2000 Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration Conference – Jenter, Langevin, Swain, & Schaffranek
  • Presentation at the American Society of Limnology & Oceanography, Aquatic Sciences Meeting, Albuquerque, NM, Feb. 12-16, 2001 – Jenter & Schaffranek
  • Poster presentations at the April 23-26, 2001, Florida Bay Science Conference – Jenter, Langevin, Swain, & Schaffranek


New directions or major changes for FY 2001:
This project extends the SICS model development westward to encompass the entire land margin boundary of Everglades National Park. Swain will address and resolve issues raised in the SICS model-documentation report review and process the report to obtain Director’s approval—the scope of the effort documented will exclude the SICS MODFLOW/SEAWAT groundwater model component presently under development by Langevin for coupling with the SICS SWIFT2D surface-water component. The SICS SWIFT2D/SEAWAT model coupling will be documented subsequently by Swain and Langevin for publication in a scientific Journal.

PROJECT SUPPORT REQUIREMENTS
In order to make immediate substantive progress on development of the TIME model, data essential for characterization and representation of the interconnected groundwater and surface-water systems and parameterization of critical flow controlling processes need to be collected and made available by other projects supporting this effort. Support is needed from the following projects:

Southwest Florida Coastal and Wetland Systems Monitoring - Patino, E.; Hittle, C.
High Accuracy Elevation Data Collection - Desmond, G. B.
Land Characteristics from Remote Sensing - Desmond, G. B.; Jones, J. W.; Rybicki, N.
Geophysical Mapping of Freshwater/Saltwater Interface - Fitterman, D. V.
Evapotranspiration Measurements and Modeling - German, E. R.
Groundwater-Surface Water Exchange Fluxes - Harvey, J. W.
Vegetative Resistance to Flow – Jenter, H. L.; Schaffranek, R. W. ; Rybicki, N.
Land Margin Ecosystem Program - Smith, T. J. III

Four primary sets of data are required for the surface-water component of the TIME model; these include land-surface elevations, boundary conditions, vegetation classifications, and measurements of flow (water-surface elevations and velocities) for model calibration and verification.

Land-surface elevations are the key fundamental data needed to construct the computational grid of the model—it is obvious that a valid and representative elevation grid for the TIME model domain cannot be generated until such data become available. Therefore, in order to fulfill this need and not hinder the TIME model development, it is critical that the 400-m spaced NMD helicopter surveys be conducted expeditiously and that the resultant data be subjected to QC/QA procedures to ensure their accuracy prior to release for use in constructing the model grid. No NMD helicopter surveys have been conducted to date in order to define land-surface elevations in the mangrove ecotone and no other historical data are known to exist—this is particularly problematic for TIME model grid generation.

The second most essential type of data for the surface-water component of the TIME model are data, principally water-surface elevations and salinity concentrations, defining boundary conditions for flow and transport forcing mechanisms. Without correct transfer functions in the form of boundary-value data at the model extremities it is impossible to conduct numerical simulations that are accurate and meaningful. Although some sets of tidal water-level data exist, questions remain as to the state and quality of datum control needed to have them commonly referenced to the vertical datum of the land-surface elevation grid (NAVD 88). A thorough analysis by the CESI Science Advisory Committee for High Density Topography indicates that significant problems and questions persist as to the state of vertical datum control in support of regional models in south Florida. Progress in developing meaningful numerical simulations with the TIME model will be hampered substantially by the current lack of a quality, vertical datum-control network in the model domain for referencing boundary-value data as well as land-surface elevations. It is imperative, therefore, that NMD surveying to establish a vertical datum-control network in the TIME model domain be given highest priority or other independent mechanisms for developing the control network will need to be pursued so as not to hinder model progress.

For vegetation classifications, the TIME project leaders will be working closely with John Jones, NMD, in his Land Characterization from Remote Sensing Project to develop and test the aggregation of land-surface fields (vegetation cover type, density, ET, etc.) to scales appropriate for describing hydrologic processes (resistance, ET) and dynamic forces (wind stress) in the TIME model. This work will be closely correlated with the Evapotranspiration Measurements and Modeling Project (German) and the Vegetative Resistance to Flow Project (Rybicki) to investigate and develop linkages of hydrologic processes to vegetation characteristics.

As to the fourth primary set of data for model development, i.e., measured flows, the project proposals prepared and submitted in FY2000 to fulfill these needs—Wetland Hydrologic Monitoring (Patino) & Water Flows and Nutrient Fluxes to the Ten Thousand Islands and Rookery Bay Area (Patino)—were not funded and consequently little progress was made in FY2000 with regard to fulfilling these boundary-value and model-calibration data needs. These critical missing data continue to plague and jeopardize progress in development of the surface-water component of the TIME model. Full funding support is needed in FY2001 for the Southwest Florida Coastal and Wetland Systems Monitoring project proposal submitted by Eduardo Patino, WRD, to establish the monitoring network to provide these missing data.

For development of the groundwater component of the TIME model, full support is needed from the Geophysical Mapping of Freshwater/Saltwater Interface Project of Dave Fitterman, GD, and the Groundwater-Surface Water Exchange Fluxes Project of Jud Harvey, WRD, to define ground-/surface-water interactions and rates. The leakage flows between the surface-water and groundwater systems will be modeled as part of the TIME model development, as well as the flux and concentrations of salinity. The field data to support the ground-water model are very sparse. The lack of permanent stations is a major limitation in calibrating the model. In addition, salinity data for both the surface water and ground water are necessary in order to develop the transport interactions between the two systems. Only two USGS groundwater wells, C-311 and C-39, one of which was discontinued in 1998, are located at the model area’s western boundary. Besides these two, there is only one other USGS well in the model area west of L-67 canal (G-620). There is also a compounding lack of data to define aquifer characteristics. Practically no areal description of the aquifer south of Tamiami Trail and west of Ingraham Highway is available. Some well cores are available along Tamiami Trail in the northwest corner of the model area, but this is very near the model boundary. The need for ground-water data is even greater than for surface water.

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