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Simulation in the Coffee Sand and Eutaw-McShan Aquifers in Union County, Mississippi, 2010 Through 2050

Hutson, S.S., 2002, Simulation in the Coffee Sand and Eutaw-McShan Aquifers in Union County, Mississippi, 2010 Through 2050 [abs.], in Tennessee Water Resources Symposium, 12th, Burns, Tenn., 2002, Proceedings: Tennessee Section of the American Water Resources Association, p. 2A-54 - 2A-60.

Abstract

Ground water from the Eutaw-McShan and Coffee Sand aquifers, with lesser amounts withdrawn from the Gordo and Ripley aquifers is the sole source of supply for residential, commercial, and industrial purposes in Union County, Mississippi. The recent accelerated rate of growth of the population and of the economy in Union County suggests that the need for additional ground water will increase in the future. Long-term projections are needed to determine if the aquifers can supply anticipated future municipal and non-municipal water demands for the water-service area to the year 2050.

Detailed water-use data and ancillary information for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors were collected for the 12 public-supply facilities and for the self-supplied commercial and industrial facilities in Union County for 1998. The data were used to document water use and to construct the linear-predictive and constant-rate models contained within Forecast Manager of the IWR-MAIN Water-Demand Suite software. Water demand to 2050 was estimated by relating housing and employee counts, housing and employee types, median household income, marginal price of water, water-conservation practices, and long-term temperature and precipitation data to water use.

In 1998, total ground-water withdrawals were estimated as 2.85 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). Of that amount, municipal withdrawals were 2.55 Mgal/d. Residential deliveries from the public-supply systems accounted for 59 percent (1.50 Mgal/d) of the municipal water; commercial and industrial, 18 percent (0.456 Mgal/d); and, public/unaccounted water, about 23 percent (0.594 Mgal/d). Non-municipal withdrawals were 0.296 Mgal/d. About 80 percent (2.27 Mgal/d) of the water is from the Eutaw-McShan aquifer; about 13 percent (0.371 Mgal/d) from the Coffee Sand aquifer; about 4 percent (0.129 Mgal/d) from the Gordo aquifer; and, 3 percent (0.082 Mgal/d) from the Ripley aquifer.

Simulations of water demand were made using a normal- and a high-growth scenario. In a normal-growth scenario, total water demand could increase 73 percent from 2.9 Mgal/d in year 1998 to 5.0 Mgal/d in year 2050. Municipal demand could increase from 2.6 Mgal/d to 4.6 Mgal/d, or 77 percent. In a high growth scenario, total water demand could increase 131 percent from 2.9 Mgal/d in year 1998 to 6.7 Mgal/d in year 2050. Municipal water demand could increase 146 percent during that same time. The rate of non-municipal use (0.30 Mgal/d) was held constant for the forecast years for both scenarios.

Simulations of projected ground-water levels were made using baseline-, normal-, and high-growth water demands. The ground-water model was constructed using the USGS finite-difference computer code MODFLOW. The model had been calibrated as part of an earlier study that concluded in 1998 of the aquifers in formations of Cretaceous and Paleozoic age in northeastern Mississippi. The calibrated ground-water flow model that had been used in that investigation was applied over the entire area originally simulated to account for boundary conditions and maintain calibration. Although the study area of the model corresponds to the area included in the ground-water flow model, the focus of the investigation is Union County.

The baseline projection simulations for the Coffee Sand and Eutaw-McShan aquifers used an annual increase of 1.03 percent in water use for years 2001 to 2050. In the New Albany area, simulation drawdowns in the Coffee Sand aquifer were about 65 feet below year 2000 water levels. In the Eutaw-McShan aquifer, the cone shows a maximum drawdown at its center of about 120 feet for the year 2050. The resulting projected water level at the center of the drawdown cone in the New Albany area is between 500 and 550 feet above the top of the Eutaw-McShan aquifer.

The normal- and high-growth projection simulations for the Coffee Sand and Eutaw-McShan aquifers used the normal- and high-growth output data from the water-demand model for Union County, and an annual increase of 1.03 percent in water use for years 2001 to 2050 for the other areas in the model. For normal-growth projections, simulated drawdowns in the Coffee Sand aquifer in the New Albany area were about 65 feet below year 2000 water levels. For the high-growth projections, simulated drawdowns in the Coffee Sand aquifer were about 75 feet below year 2000 water levels.

For the Eutaw-McShan aquifer, normal-growth projections resulted in a cone of drawdown centered on the New Albany area of Union County. The cone shows a maximum drawdown at its center of about 135 feet. The resulting projected water level for the year 2050 at the center of the drawdown cone in the New Albany area is between 500 and 550 feet above the top of the Eutaw-McShan aquifer. For high-growth projections the cone shows a maximum drawdown at its center of about 190 feet. The projected water level for the year 2050 at the center of the drawdown cone in the New Albany are is between 450 and 500 feet above the top of the Eutaw-McShan aquifer.

Table 1. Simulated water demand for the Union County water-service area for 1998, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050, in million gallons per day

 __________________________________________________________________________________
                                                                         Percent
                                                                         change
                                                                        from 1998
        Sector               1998      2010   2020   2030   2040   2050  to 2050
___________________________________________________________________________________

                                 Normal-growth scenario
   Municipal water
   Residential                1.5       1.9    2.1    2.4    2.7    3.0    100
   Commercial and industrial   .46       .56    .62    .73    .84    .95   107
   Public/unaccounted          .60       .44    .49    .55    .62    .70    17
   Sub-total municipal water  2.6       2.9    3.2    3.7    4.2    4.6     77
   Peak daily demand*         4.3       4.8    5.3    6.1    6.9    7.6     77
   Non-municipal water
   Commercial and industrial   .30       .30    .30    .30    .30    .30     0
   Subtotal non-municipal water.30       .30    .30    .30    .30    .30     0
   Total water demand         2.9       3.2    3.5    4.0    4.5    5.0     73
   
                                  High-growth scenario
   Municipal water
   Residential                1.5       2.1    2.6    3.0    3.6    4.2    180
   Commercial and industrial   .46       .62    .78    .92   1.1    1.2    161
   Public/unaccounted          .60       .49    .60    .70    .82   1.0     67
   Sub-total municipal water  2.6       3.2    4.0    4.7    5.5    6.4    150
   Peak daily demand*         4.3       5.3    6.6    7.8    9.1   11      156
   Non-municipal water
   Commercial and industrial   .30       .30    .30    .30    .30    .30     0
   Subtotal non-municipal water.30       .30    .30    .30    .30    .30     0
   Total water demand         2.9       3.5    4.3    5.0    5.8    6.7    131
__________________________________________________________________________________

   *Peak daily demand is about 1.65 times the average daily use for public-supply systems using ground water in Mississippi (American Water Works, 1992).
 

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