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Bayesian Time-Series Analysis of Segments of the Rocky Mountain Trumpeter Swan (Cygnus buccinator) Population

Metadata:


Identification_Information:
Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Wright, C.K, Sojda, R., and D. Goodman
Publication_Date: In Review
Publication_Time: 2001
Title:
Bayesian Time-Series Analysis of Segments of the Rocky Mountain Trumpeter Swan (Cygnus buccinator) Population
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Waterbirds
Issue_Identification:
Proceedings of the 4th International Swan Symposium
Publication_Information:
Publisher: The Waterbird Society
Description:
Abstract:
Bayesian time series analysis techniques were used to analyze Trumpeter Swan (Cygnus buccinator) time series from Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming from 1931 to 2000. Results indicate that the Yellowstone National Park segment of white birds is declining at an annual rate of 3.5% (± 2.2%, p=0.90). The estimated probability of achieving the Subcommittee on Rocky Mountain Trumpeter Swans 2002 population goal of 40 white birds for the Yellowstone segment is 0.069. Outside of Yellowstone, Wyoming white bird numbers are estimated to be increasing by 1.5% (± 3.3%, p=0.90) annually with a 0.662 probability of achieving the 2002 goal of 120 white birds. At the Centennial Valley in southwest Montana, results indicate that the white bird population is growing at a 5.2% (± 7.9%, p=0.90) annual rate with considerable uncertainty. The estimated probability of achieving the 2002 Centennial Valley goal of 160 white birds is 0.725 but under an alternative model falls to 0.219. The Targhee National Forest segment of white birds is declining at a rate of 3.9% (± 3.2%, p=0.90), annually, while outside of the Targhee National Forest, Idaho white birds are increasing at an annual rate of 8.7% (± 7.1%, p=0.90).
Purpose:
Time series analyses provided in support of development of the Trumpeter Swan Decision Support System at the Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center.
Supplemental_Information:
A database of September counts of Trumpeter Swan cygnets and white birds from 1971 to 2000 was created prior to conducting time series analyses. This data can be queried at swan.msu.montana.edu/census/sept_query.html, allowing the user to view counts from various segments of the Tri-State segment of the Rocky Mountain Population.
Time_Period_of_Content:
Currentness_Reference:
9/1931 to 9/2000 are the dates for which time series analyses were conducted. 9/1971 to 9/1999 are years over which database can be queried.
Status:
Progress: complete
Maintenance_and_Update_Frequency: Unknown
Spatial_Domain:
Description_of_Geographic_Extent: Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming
Bounding_Coordinates:
West_Bounding_Coordinate: -117
East_Bounding_Coordinate: -103
North_Bounding_Coordinate: 49
South_Bounding_Coordinate: 41
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: none
Theme_Keyword: Bayesian Time Series Analysis
Theme_Keyword: Population monitoring
Theme_Keyword: Rocky Mountain Population of Trumpeter Swans
Place:
Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: none
Place_Keyword: Idaho
Place_Keyword: Montana
Place_Keyword: Wyoming
Stratum:
Stratum_Keyword_Thesaurus: None
Stratum_Keyword: Yellowstone National Park
Stratum_Keyword: Targhee National Forest
Stratum_Keyword: Wyoming outside of Yellowstone NP
Stratum_Keyword: Idaho outside of Targhee NF
Stratum_Keyword: Red Rock Lakes NWR
Stratum_Keyword: Centennial Valley
Temporal:
Temporal_Keyword_Thesaurus: None
Temporal_Keyword: USFWS Fall Trumpeter Swan Surveys
Taxonomy:
Taxonomic_Keywords: Cygnus buccinator
Taxonomic_Coverage:
Specific_Taxonomic_Information:
Kingdom: animal
Division-Phylum: chordata
Class: avies
Order: anseriformes
Family: anatidae
Genus: cygnus
Species: buccinator
Applicable_Common_Names: Trumpeter Swan
Taxonomic_Coverage:
Specific_Taxonomic_Information:
Genus: Cygnus
Species: buccinator
Applicable_Common_Names: Trumpeter Swan
Access_Constraints: None
Use_Constraints: None
Point_of_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Position: Richard Sojda
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical address
Address: U.S. Geological Service
Address: Biological Resources Division
Address: Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
Address: AJM Johnson Hall
Address: Montana State University
City: Bozeman
State_or_Province: Montana
Postal_Code: 59717-3492
Contact_Voice_Telephone: 406-994-1820
Contact_TDD/TTY_Telephone: unavailable
Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: unavailable
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: sojda@montana.edu
Hours_of_Service: 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Monday Through Friday
Contact_Instructions: unavailable
Data_Set_Credit: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Native_Data_Set_Environment: UNIX - Solaris OS
Cross_Reference:


Data_Quality_Information:


Spatial_Data_Organization_Information:


Spatial_Reference_Information:


Entity_and_Attribute_Information:


Distribution_Information:


Metadata_Reference_Information:
Metadata_Date: 2/27/2001
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Position: Richard Sojda
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing and physical address
Address: U.S. Geological Service
Address: Biological Resources Division
Address: Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
Address: AJM Johnson Hall
Address: Montana State University
City: Bozeman
State_or_Province: Montana
Postal_Code: 59717-3492
Contact_Voice_Telephone: 406-994-1820
Contact_TDD/TTY_Telephone: unavailable
Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: unavailable
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: sojda@montana.edu
Hours_of_Service: 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Monday Through Friday
Contact_Instructions: unavailable
Metadata_Standard_Name:
NBII Content Standard for National Biological Information Infrastructure Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version: December 1995
Metadata_Access_Constraints: None
Metadata_Use_Constraints: None
Metadata_Security_Information:
Metadata_Security_Classification_System: None
Metadata_Security_Classification: Unclassified
Metadata_Security_Handling_Description: None



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