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Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center

Maps, Models, and Tools for Bird Conservation Planning

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results - Black-billed Cuckoo

These results are available in:
Thogmartin, W. E., and M. G. Knutson. 2006. Scaling local species-habitat relations to the larger landscape with a hierarchical spatial count model. Landscape Ecology: Online.

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results
  Avian Species-of-Concern in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition Ecoregion (Bird Conservation Region 23)

Black-billed Cuckoo
Coccyzus erythropthalmus

Conservation Estate Portfolio for the Black-billed Cuckoo (Coccyzus erythropthalmus)

Black-billed Cuckoo Predicted Relative Abundance Map

Black-billed Cuckoo Predicted Relative Abundance Map (map - click for larger scale)

Black-billed Cuckoo

Black-billed Cuckoo

AOU Code BBCU
Habitat Association shrub- wetlands/forest
Nest Type and Location open-cup, ground/low
Migration Status Neotropical
Conservation Score 24

Black-billed Cuckoo Predicted Relative Abundance Map
This map indicates predicted relative species abundance. The predicted count could be expected were a Breeding Bird Survey route conducted, centered at the location of interest.

Black-billed Cuckoo Predicted Relative Abundance Map

 

 

Black-billed Cuckoo Averaged Habitat Model

Explanatory Variable Scale (m) Median 95% LCL 95% UCL Variable Importance
Beech-Oak Forest Composition (%)
100
0.232
0.228
0.236
0.196
Beech-Oak Forest Composition (%)
1,000
0.179
0.175
0.184
0.544
Beech-Oak Forest Composition (%)
10,000
0.251
0.246
0.256
0.261
Area-weighted Forest Patch Size (m)
100
0.066
0.062
0.069
0.109
Area-weighted Forest Patch Size (m)
1,000
0.104
0.101
0.108
0.337
Area-weighted Forest Patch Size (m)
10,000
0.016
0.012
0.020
0.091
Mean Static Wetness Index (scales between 1 [dry] to 19 [moist])
100
-0.161
-0.165
-0.156
0.196
Static Wetness Index
1,000
-0.052
-0.056
-0.048
0.108
Static Wetness Index
10,000
-0.083
-0.087
-0.078
0.150
Wooded Wetland Composition (%)
100
0.187
0.183
0.191
0.196
Wooded Wetland Composition (%)
1,000
0.205
0.202
0.209
0.544
Wooded Wetland Composition (%)
10,000
0.192
0.188
0.197
0.261
Urban Grass Composition (%)
100
-0.297
-0.301
-0.292
0.196
Urban Grass Composition (%)
1,000
-0.372
-0.377
-0.367
0.544
Urban Grass Composition (%)
10,000
-0.237
-0.241
-0.232
0.261
Normal CAR
 
-1.092
-1.098
-1.085
1

K-L Best Subset Models

Model Explanatory VariableScale Parameters DIC ΔDIC wi Evidence Ratios
1
Beech-Oak Forest1,000, Forest Patch Area1,000, Wooded Wetlands1,000, Urban Grass1,000
513.4
3977.85
0
0.227
1
2
Beech-Oak Forest1,000,Wooded Wetlands1,000, Urban Grass1,000
514.0
3978.05
0.2
0.205
1.11
3
Beech-Oak Forest10,000, Wooded Wetlands10,000, Urban Grass10,000
516.4
3979.3
1.45
0.110
2.06
4
Beech-Oak Forest100, Forest Patch Area100, Wetness100, Wooded Wetlands100, Urban Grass100
512.8
3979.33
1.48
0.108
2.10
5
Beech-Oak Forest1,000, Forest Patch Area1,000, Wetness1,000, Wooded Wetlands1,000, Urban Grass1,000
511.2
3979.34
1.49
0.108
2.11
6
Beech-Oak Forest10,000, Forest Patch Area10,000, Wetness10,000, Wooded Wetlands10,000, Urban Grass10,000
517.0
3979.69
1.84
0.090
2.51
7
Beech-Oak Forest100, Wetness100, Wooded Wetlands100, Urban Grass100
512.4
3979.79
1.94
0.086
2.64
8
Beech-Oak Forest10,000, Wetness10,000, Wooded Wetlands10,000, Urban Grass10,000
517.0
3980.55
2.7
0.059
3.86
Null
 
519.9
3985.5
7.65
0.005
45.83
Parameters: Effective number of parameters
DIC: Deviance Information Criterion
ΔDIC: Difference in deviance between model and best model
wi: Model weight
Evidence Ratio: Ratio of model i relative to the best model
 

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend Graph

Black-billed Cuckoo Population Trend Graph


*
Partners-in-Flight Conservation score for PIF16

(171 KB .pdf file - requires Acrobat Reader)  

Scores range between 5 and 35, with higher scores signifying greater conservation concern. Each species is of management concern because of their rarity, declining abundance, or habitat specificity (http://www.blm.gov/wildlife/pl_16sum.htm).

Content manager: Wayne Thogmartin

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