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Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center

Maps, Models, and Tools for Bird Conservation Planning

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results - Cerulean Warbler

These results are available in:
Thogmartin, W. E., J. R. Sauer, and M. G. Knutson. 2004. A hierarchical spatial model of avian abundance with application to Cerulean Warblers. Ecological Applications 14:1766–1779. (Ecological Archive)

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results
  Avian Species-of-Concern in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition Ecoregion (Bird Conservation Region 23)

Cerulean Warbler
Dendroica cerulea


Conservation Estate Portfolio for the Cerulean Warbler

Cerulean Warbler Predicted Relative Abundance Map


Cerulean Warbler Predicted Relative Abundance Map (map - click for larger scale)

Cerulean Warbler

Cerulean Warbler

AOU Code CERW
Habitat Association broad-leaved forest
Nest Type and Location open-cup, midstory/canopy
Migration Status Neotropical
Conservation Score 26

Cerulean Warbler Predicted Relative Abundance Map
This map indicates predicted relative species abundance. The predicted count of any cell in the map represents the expected count if a Breeding Bird Survey route were centered on that cell.

Cerulean Warbler Predicted Relative Abundance Map

 

Cerulean Warbler Best Model

Explanatory Variable

Scale
(m)

Median 95% LCL 95% UCL Variable Importance
Forest Patch
1000
0.199
-0.935
1.247
1
Wooded Wetland
1000
1.254
0.3563
2.482
1
Wetness Index
100
-1.176
-2.435
-0.27
1
Annual Precipitation
 
1.487
-0.1117
3.277
1
Forest Patch-Precipitation Interaction
1000
1.733
0.1274
3.661
0.41
Spatial CAR
 
-8.537
-11.83
-6.18
1

K-L Best Subset Models

Model Explanatory VariableScale Parameters DIC ΔDIC wi Evidence Ratios
1
Forest Patch1,000, Wooded Wetland1,000, Wetness Index100, Annual Precipitation, Forest Patch-Precipitation Interaction
44.1
283.892
0
0.415
1
2
Forest Patch1,000, Oak and Elm10,000, Wooded Wetland1,000, Wetness Index100, Annual Precipitation, Forest Core Edge Density100
41.4
286.072
2.18
0.139
2.97
3
Forest Patch100, Oak and Elm1,000, Wooded Wetland1,000, Wetness Index100, Annual Precipitation, Forest Core Edge Density100
42.5
286.111
2.219
0.137
3.033
4
Forest Patch1,000, Oak and Elm1,000, Wooded Wetland1,000, Wetness Index100, Annual Precipitation, Forest Core Edge Density100
39.9
286.246
2.354
0.128
3.245
5
Forest Patch100, Oak and Elm10,000, Wooded Wetland1,000, Wetness Index100, Annual Precipitation, Forest Core Edge Density100
41.0
286.740
2.848
0.100
4.154
Null
 
47.8
287.294
3.402
0.076
5.479
Parameters: Effective number of parameters
DIC: Deviance Information Criterion
ΔDIC: Difference in deviance between model and best model
wi: Model weight
Evidence Ratio: Ratio of model i relative to the best model
 

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend Graph

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend Graph

Predicting Population Extirpation in the Cerulean Warbler

 


*
Partners-in-Flight Conservation score for PIF16

(171 KB .pdf file - requires Acrobat Reader)  

Scores range between 5 and 35, with higher scores signifying greater conservation concern. Each species is of management concern because of their rarity, declining abundance, or habitat specificity (http://www.blm.gov/wildlife/pl_16sum.htm).

Content manager: Wayne Thogmartin

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Page Last Modified: January 29, 2016

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