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Maps, Models, and Tools for Bird Conservation Planning

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results - Golden-winged Warbler

Thogmartin, W. E. 2010. Modeling and mapping Golden-winged Warbler abundance to improve regional conservation strategies. Avian Conservation and Ecology - Écologie et conservation des oiseaux 5 (2):12. [online] URL: http://www.ace-eco.org/vol5/iss2/art12/

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results
  Avian Species-of-Concern in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition Ecoregion (Bird Conservation Region 23)

Golden-winged Warbler
Vermivora chrysoptera

Conservation Estate Portfolio for the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera)

Golden-winged Warbler Predicted Relative Abundance Map


Golden-winged Warbler Predicted Relative Abundance Map (map - click for larger scale)

Golden-winged Warbler

Golden-winged Warbler

AOU Code GWWA
Habitat Association shrub- wetlands/forest
Nest Type and Location open-cup, ground/low
Migration Status Neotropical
Conservation Score 29

Golden-winged Warbler Predicted Relative Abundance Map
This map indicates predicted relative species abundance. The predicted count of any cell in the map represents the expected count if a Breeding Bird Survey route were centered on that cell.

Golden-winged Warbler Predicted Relative Abundance Map

 

 

Golden-winged Warbler Averaged Habitat Model

Explanatory Variable Scale (m) Median 95% LCL 95% UCL Variable Importance
Shrub/Grass/Forest Edge (km/km2)
1,000
-0.626
-0.631
-0.621
0.213
Shrub/Grass/Forest Edge (km/km2)
10,000
-0.684
-0.689
-0.679
0.787
Total Forest Composition (%)
1,000
0.790
0.778
0.802
0.213
Total Forest Composition (%)
10,000
1.327
1.321
1.333
0.787
Patchy Forest Composition (%)
10,000
-0.401
-0.407
-0.396
0.787
Perforated Forest Composition (%)
10,000
-0.199
-0.203
-0.194
0.787
Transitional Forest Composition (%)
1,000
-0.517
-0.522
-0.512
0.213
Aspen Forest Composition (%)
1,000
0.254
0.249
0.258
0.213
Aspen Forest Composition (%)
10,000
0.216
0.211
0.220
0.787
Deciduous Forest Composition (%)
1,000
0.451
0.441
0.462
0.213
Blue-winged Warbler Abundance
 
-0.330
-0.332
-0.327
1
Northing
 
1.100
1.093
1.106
1
Intercept
 
-4.066
-4.074
-4.058
1

K-L Best Subset Models

Model Explanatory Variable Scale Parameters DIC ΔDIC wi Evidence Ratios
1
Shrub/Grass/Forest Edge10,000, (Total, Patchy, Perforated, and Aspen Forest10,000), Blue-winged Warbler Abundance, Northing
171.8
1411.46
0
0.740
1
2
Shrub/Grass/Forest Edge1,000, (Total, Transitional, Aspen, and Deciduous Forest1,000), Blue-winged Warbler Abundance, Northing
174.2
1414.07
2.61
0.201
3.69
Null
 
182.8
1423.69
12.23
0.002
4.5E+02
Parameters: Effective number of parameters
DIC: Deviance Information Criterion
ΔDIC: Difference in deviance between model and best model
wi: Model weight
Evidence Ratio: Ratio of model i relative to the best model
 

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend Graph

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend Graph

 


*
Partners-in-Flight Conservation score for PIF16

(171 KB .pdf file - requires Acrobat Reader)  

Scores range between 5 and 35, with higher scores signifying greater conservation concern. Each species is of management concern because of their rarity, declining abundance, or habitat specificity (http://www.blm.gov/wildlife/pl_16sum.htm).

Content manager: Wayne Thogmartin

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December 16, 2011