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Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center

Maps, Models, and Tools for Bird Conservation Planning

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results - Upland Sandpiper

These results are available in:
Thogmartin, W. E., M. G. Knutson, and J. R. Sauer. 2006. Predicting regional abundance of rare grassland birds with a hierarchical spatial count model. Condor 108:25-46.

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results
  Avian Species-of-Concern in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition Ecoregion (Bird Conservation Region 23)

Upland Sandpiper
Bartramia longicauda

Upland Sandpiper Predicted Relative Abundance Map

Upland Sandpiper Predicted Relative Abundance Map (map - click for larger scale)

Upland Sandpiper

Upland Sandpiper

AOU Code UPSA
Habitat Association grassland
Nest Type and Location open-cup, ground
Migration Status Neotropical
Conservation Score 23

 

Upland Sandpiper Predicted Relative Abundance Map
This map indicates predicted relative species abundance. The predicted count of any cell in the map represents the expected count if a Breeding Bird Survey route were centered on that cell. Each map shows urban areas and federal lands for reference. We were not able to identify substantial spatial relationships relating to this species patterns of abundance.

Upland Sandpiper Predicted Relative Abundance Map

Upland Sandpiper Averaged Habitat Model

Explanatory Variable Scale (m) Median 95% LCL 95% UCL Variable Importance
Area-weighted Mean Grassland Patch Size (m)
100
0.272
0.263
0.280
0.052
Area-weighted Mean Grassland Patch Size (m)
1,000
0.711
0.702
0.721
0.290
Area-weighted Mean Grassland Patch Size (m)
10,000
0.580
0.571
0.590
0.275
Total Forest Composition (%)
100
-0.584
-0.598
-0.570
0.052
Total Forest Composition (%)
1,000
-0.968
-0.981
-0.955
0.177
Total Forest Composition (%)
10,000
-0.883
-0.896
-0.870
0.388
Sandy Soil Composition (%)
1,000
0.548
0.537
0.560
0.290
Coefficient of Variation in Mean Spring Precipitation
 
0.407
0.395
0.418
0.165
30-yr Mean Spring Temperature (ºC)
 
-0.969
-0.982
-0.956
0.617
Spatial CAR
 
-3.264
-3.273
-3.255
1

K-L Best Subset Models

Model Explanatory Variable Scale Parameters DIC ΔDIC wi Evidence Ratios
Null
 
230.411
1797.35
0
0.383
1
1
Grass Patch Size10,000, Forest10,000, Spring Temperature
216.981
1798.01
0.66
0.275
1.39
2
Grass Patch Size1,000, Forest1,000, Sandy Soil1,000, Spring Temperature
215.973
1798.89
1.54
0.177
March 21, 2007="right">2.16
3
Grass Patch Size1,000, Forest10,000, Sandy Soil1,000, Spring Temperature
217.405
1799.80
2.45
0.112
3.40
4
Grass Patch Size100, Forest100, CV Summer Precipitation, Spring Temperature
217.699
1801.33
3.98
0.052
7.32
Parameters: Effective number of parameters
DIC: Deviance Information Criterion
ΔDIC: Difference in deviance between model and best model
wi: Model weight
Evidence Ratio: Ratio of model i relative to the best model
 

Upland Sandpiper Population Trend Graph

Upland Sandpiper Population Trend Graph


*
Partners-in-Flight Conservation score for PIF16

(171 KB .pdf file - requires Acrobat Reader)  

Scores range between 5 and 35, with higher scores signifying greater conservation concern. Each species is of management concern because of their rarity, declining abundance, or habitat specificity (http://www.blm.gov/wildlife/pl_16sum.htm).

Content manager: Wayne Thogmartin

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March 21, 2007