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Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center

Maps, Models, and Tools for Bird Conservation Planning

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results - Cerulean Warbler

These are draft results under scientific review.

Modeling Avian Abundance: Results
  Avian Species-of-Concern in the Appalachian Mountains (Bird Conservation Region 28)

Cerulean Warbler
Dendroica cerulea

Cerulean Warbler Predicted Relative Abundance Map

Cerulean Warbler Predicted Relative Abundance Map

Cerulean Warbler

Cerulean Warbler

Cerulean Warbler

AOU Code CERW
Habitat Association broad-leaved forest
Nest Type and Location open-cup, midstory/canopy
Migration Status Neotropical

Cerulean Warbler Predicted Relative Abundance Map

This map indicates predicted relative species abundance. The predicted count of any cell in the map represents the expected count if a Breeding Bird Survey route were centered on that cell. The size of the circles (bubbles) represents the magnitude of a 10-year mean in Cerulean Warbler counts on Breeding Bird Survey routes. The Breeding Bird Survey routes themselves are denoted by the red lines.

Cerulean Warbler Predicted Relative Abundance Map

Cerulean Warbler Mean Abundance Map

Cerulean Warbler Mean Abundance Map

 

Cerulean Warbler Best Model

Cerulean Warbler
Variable 2.50% Median 97.50%
Slope of the temporal trend -0.035 -0.011 0.013
Proportion of the landscape in Deer Forage -0.094 0.138 0.364
Proportion of landscape in Wooded Wetland -0.104 0.321 0.724
Mean Precipitation -1.215 -0.647 -0.127
Mean Wetness Potential -0.458 -0.110 0.230
Proportion of the landscape in Oak/Elm -0.230 0.045 0.283
Area-weighted Mean Patch Size of Forest@ -0.022 0.206 0.418
Forest Edge Density 0.079 0.387 0.716
Proportion of landscape in Forest 0.417 0.812 1.185
Brown-headed Cowbird Relative Abundance -0.022 0.270 0.604
Acid Deposition -0.059 0.054 0.165
Soil pH -0.229 0.084 0.396
Interaction of Acid Deposition and Soil pH 0.011 0.081 0.151
Intercept -9.085 -4.257 -2.656
Observer Effect -0.661 1.008 5.815
@After adjusting for proportion of forest
 

Cerulean Warbler Validation Plot

Cerulean Warbler Validation Plot

 

Content manager: Wayne Thogmartin

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