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USGS Science Takes On the Tough Questions
Released: 12/10/2007 2:01:40 PM

Contact Information:
U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey
Office of Communication
119 National Center
Reston, VA 20192
Stephanie Hanna 1-click interview
Phone: 206-818-7411

Leslie Gordon 1-click interview
Phone: 650-793-1534

Paul Laustsen 1-click interview
Phone: 650-454-7264



  • Is San Francisco's Hayward Fault in the East Bay the most dangerous urban fault in America? And are the Hayward and the Calaveras Faults linked at depth?
  • Is the U.S. Atlantic Coast a tsunami hazard zone?
  • Is the frequency of Southern California's devastating wildfires creating new pathways for invasive species that create even more and hotter wildfires? And what role will climate change play?
  • Ethanol production leads to greater energy security, but with all the new crop production, what is the impact on streams and rivers in corn country?
  • What will a three-degree temperature increase do to regional water supplies?
  • What's next for the new eruptions of Hawaii's Kilauea volcano, and what might affect nearby residential settlements? Does inflation of Mauna Loa mean that it will erupt next?
  • What is causing the bright gaseous fans observed during the seasonal "ice cap" on Mars?
  • What are we learning about the magma systems that underlie Yellowstone and Long Valley's restless volcanic calderas?
  • How will the Rocky Mountains' shrinking glaciers affect the landscape, water and habitat enjoyed today?

These are just a few of the questions that scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will shed light on at this year's annual conference of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, December 9 - 13, 2007. In addition, hundreds of USGS scientists will be participating in AGU news conferences, panel and poster sessions and other conference events or have submitted abstracts accepted for the program. The AGU conference will be held at the Moscone Center.

Details on USGS's "tip sheet" for AGU are laid out on the following pages in a daily format to assist media in identifying agenda highlights.

News media are also invited to visit USGS' exhibit at the AGU conference, featuring Earth observations from space, climate change, and developing a water census for the U.S. Learn about our latest scientific investigations, from California wildfires to viewing software that calculates and displays changing stresses on earthquake faults. The exhibit is an easy place to connect with USGS data, publications, and information.


 

USGS Tip Sheet

Climate Change's Effect on Groundwater Recharge

Groundwater is a vital resource in the western states, accounting for over a quarter of our total water supplies. Because mountains are generally cooler and wetter than adjacent basins, groundwater in the West is derived mostly from mountain precipitation. Warming temperatures have already caused declines in Western snowpacks and earlier flows in melt-fed streams. Current projections of future climate suggest that these trends will continue.

Come listen to the science that estimates how these changes will affect the water supply and surrounding environment and how a multidisciplinary team of scientists approach addressing the problems.

Monday, December 10, 4:45 PM MW 2020 (H14E-04)
Climate Influences on Groundwater Recharge: Implications for Western Groundwater and Surface Water Resources in the Face of Climate Change by Mike Dettinger

Streamflow Trends in the Missouri River Basin

Streamflow patterns have changed in the Missouri River basin over the last 50 years along with climatic warming. In the headwater areas of Montana and Wyoming, mean annual streamflow is trending downward. This decline is consistent with long-term declines in precipitation. These reductions in streamflow help explain the low reservoir storage contents in the mainstem Missouri reservoirs such as Oahe Reservoir in South Dakota and North Dakota. In the eastern portions of the MRB (eastern SD and ND), annual streamflow is trending upward again in response to increasing precipitation. Streamflow timing is also changing in the Missouri River Basin. At stations where significant runoff was found, the mass of runoff for the year is occurring earlier in the Spring. These trends are having profound effects on reservoir management and may also have ecological effects that are as yet unrecognized.

Monday, December 10, 1:40 PM- 6:00 P.M. MS Exh Hall B (GC13A-0952)
Trends in Streamflow in the Missouri River Basin from 1957 to 2006
by Mark Anderson

Assessing Lava Flow Hazards from Mauna Loa: a Natural Laboratory

Mauna Loa volcano makes up over 50% of the surface of the Island of Hawaii, and its lava flows extend 50 km or more from source events and have reached the sea in less than 24 hours. Mauna Loa has been showing signs of inflation and will undoubtedly erupt again. Emergency managers need to know areas threatened with lava inundation, the frequency of inundation, and the people, property, and facilities at risk. USGS volcanologists have prepared several different kinds of analysis to assess the potential hazards that lava flows present, incorporating GIS technology to facilitate these analyses. These studies can serve as a guide for planning by emergency managers and the public. The primary goal of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory is to provide scientific information that can be used to reduce risks from volcanic activity.

Monday, December 10, 4:00 P.M. MW 3007 (V14A-01)
Assessing Lava Flow Hazards from Mauna Loa: A Natural Laboratory by Frank Trusdell

How a +3º C Climate Change Would Affect Water Resources

A positive 3 degrees centigrade change in air temperature could have significant consequences on water resources and how land managers and other decision makers manage these resources in California and other southwestern states. This is particularly true in areas that develop winter snowpacks, like the Sierra Nevada, Trinity Mountains of the Klamath River Basin and the Colorado Rockies. USGS scientists and colleagues discuss the results of ongoing climate change studies that utilize a monthly regional-scale water-balance model to estimate changes in snow accumulation and melt, recharge, runoff, and evapotranspiration.

Monday, December 10, 5:30 P.M. MW 2020 (H14E-07)
Evaluating the effects of a +3C climate change with a regional recharge model by Alan Flint

The Hayward Fault: 140 Years After the 1868 Hayward Earthquake

USGS earthquake scientists are presenting information summarizing current knowledge about the Hayward Fault in the eastern San Francisco Bay Area during two special sessions recognizing the upcoming 140th anniversary of the 1868 Hayward earthquake. The scientists will be providing information about studies in the eastern San Francisco Bay Area to identify earthquake hazards associated with the Hayward Fault, one of the most dangerous Bay Area faults running through an urban area populated by nearly 2 million people. Oral presentations and poster sessions by USGS scientists will highlight information contained in new datasets, high resolution elevation models, imagery of active deformation and creep, new results of age-dating studies, ShakeMap refinements and innovations, 3D geometric and mechanical models. These special sessions will also highlight the important public information campaigns underway to increase awareness about seismic hazards posed by earthquake faults located throughout the Bay Area.

Tuesday, December 11, 8:00 AM - 12:20 P.M. MS Exh Hall B (S21A)
Hayward Fault: The State of Our Knowledge 140 Years After the 1868 Hayward Earthquake I, Tom Brocher

Tuesday, December 11, 1:40 PM - 3:40 P.M. MW 3014 (S23C)
Hayward Fault: The State of Our Knowledge 140 Years After the 1868 Hayward Earthquake II
, Tom Brocher

Microbial Decomposer Communities in Alaska Permafrost Soil and Their Response to Thaw

Permafrost-protected soil carbon represents a significant portion of carbon in the soil organic matter of boreal forest regions. The magnitude of this thermally-protected carbon pool makes it particularly significant within the global carbon cycle and global climatic change. Permafrost has acted as a carbon sink for thousands of years, yet currently has been warming at a rate of 1°C per decade, making the carbon contained within it potentially available for decomposition. Thawing permafrost potentially releases a globally-important carbon reservoir to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and into rivers as dissolved organic carbon, affecting greenhouse warming and aquatic chemistry. One gap in current knowledge is the extent to which permafrost-protected carbon is available for microbial metabolism once soils thaw. Microbial and chemical characteristics of three distinct geographic regions in Alaska are compared under varying simulations of summer thaw conditions, to test the hypothesis that low fungal biomass in permafrost soils will reduce the rate of decomposition of organic matter during summer thaw.

Tuesday, December 11, 1:40 PM MS Exh Hall B (B23D-1605)
Microbial decomposer communities in Alaskan permafrost soils and their response to thaw by M P Waldrop, K Wickland, J Harden, R Striegl, G Aiken

Seismic Hazard in the San Francisco Bay Area Based on a Simplified Model of Fault Interactions

USGS scientists have constructed a model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of strain accumulation, strain release, and visco-elastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the Earth's seismogenic crust. This allows the build-up of stress at all points in the plate boundary zone, that can be used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The model is being used to assess future fault rupture probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Area. Scientists have found that future rupture probabilities of area faults in coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher.

Tuesday, December 11, 1:55 PM MW 3014 (S23C-02)
Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified visco-elastic-cycle model of fault interactions by Fred Pollitz

Basin Structure Beneath the Santa Rosa Contributes to Earthquake Shaking Damage

Gravity data show that the Santa Rosa plain, in the northern San Francisco Bay region, is underlain by two sedimentary basins separated by a shallow bedrock ridge. The city of Santa Rosa is situated above the northeast corner of the southern sedimentary basin, a location where significant damage from both the 1969 and 1906 earthquakes was concentrated.

Ground motion simulations of past earthquakes suggest that basin edge effects contributed to the concentration of shaking damage in these events. The basin geometry beneath the Santa Rosa plain will likely contribute to strong shaking in this area during future earthquakes.

Characterization of underlying basins and their detailed three-dimensional subsurface geometry is an essential component for understanding the seismic hazard in the northern San Francisco Bay region and elsewhere.

Tuesday, December 11, 4:15 PM MW 2005 (NS24A-02)
Basin Structure Beneath the Santa Rosa Plain, Northern California: Implications for Damage Caused by the 1969 Santa Rosa and 1906 San Francisco Earthquakes by Darcy McPhee

CO2 Gas Jets Form Bright Fans on Mars

Past observations of the retreat of the southern seasonal "ice" cap on Mars have revealed the presence of exotic processes within an area now informally referred to as the cryptic region. The appearance of these features has been a "hot" topic of scientific discussion since first observed. Among these exotic processes are bright fans which occur among dark spots, blotches and halos within the cryptic region of Mars. New observations suggest these bright fans result from cold CO2 jets spewing out of the seasonal ice caps. The downwind settling of CO2 frost forms the bright fans adjacent to darker fans. The bright fans appear to be devoid of H2O ice.

Press Conference Tuesday, December 11, 11:00 AM Moscone West 2010

Tuesday, December 11, 4:50 PM MS 304 (P24A-05)
Bright Fans in Mars Cryptic Region Caused by Adiabatic Cooling of CO2 Gas Jets
by Timothy Titus

Climate Change Has Cascading Ecological Effects on Mountain Ecosystems

Evidence that ecosystems of the Northern Rocky Mountains are responding to climate change abounds. Alpine glaciers are disappearing rapidly, with some glaciers losing one half of their area in five years; the largest glaciers in Glacier National Park are almost ten years ahead of schedule in their retreat. The cascading ecological effects of losing glaciers in high-elevation watersheds include shifts in distribution and dominance of temperature-sensitive stream macroinvertebrates as stream volume dwindles in summer months and water temperatures increase. Critical spawning areas for threatened bull trout will be lost without the consistent supply of cold water that melting snow and ice provide, raising management questions about the efficacy of recovery efforts. Snowpacks are documented as becoming smaller and melting earlier in the spring, facilitating the invasion of subalpine meadows by trees and reducing habitat for current alpine wildlife. Even vital ecosystem disturbances, such as periodic snow avalanches that clear mountain slope forests, have been shown by tree-ring studies to be responsive to climatic trends and are likely to become less prevalent. Tighter integration of mountains studies, and comparisons among diverse mountain systems of the western U.S. has been initiated by the USGS-sponsored Western Mountain Initiative and the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains to begin addressing this need.

Press Conference Tuesday, December 11, 3:00 PM Moscone West 2010

Wednesday, December 12, 8:00 AM MW 3002 (GC31C-01)
Climate Change Has Cascading Ecological Effects on Mountain Ecosystems
by Daniel Fagre

Complex Patterns in Climate and Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition Influence Rocky Mountains

Long-term monitoring of physical and biogeochemical characteristics in the Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park, has revealed complicated patterns in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric nitrogen deposition. A combination of observations and modeling suggests this alpine/sub-alpine area is responding physically, biologically, and chemically to environmental change. Observed stream discharge was greater than measured precipitation in several recent years, indicating that melt from glacier ice is contributing to streamflow. Modeling suggests a strong increase in alpine microbial activity, plant nitrogen uptake, and a moderate increase in forest microbial activity, influenced by increased temperatures and nitrogen deposition. Annual nitrogen concentrations in the alpine/subalpine Loch Vale watershed have increased between 1991 and 2005; while nitrogen loss from Loch Vale appears to result from the combined influence of temperature and precipitation on streamflow, and secondarily from the influence of terrestrial nitrogen cycling.

Press Conference Tuesday, December 11, 3:00 PM Moscone West 2010

Wednesday, December 12, 8:15 AM MW 3002 (GC31C-02)
Complex Patterns in Climate and Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition Influence Rocky Mountain Ecosystems
by Jill Baron

How to Display Hazards and Other Scientific Data Using Google Maps

The USGS Volcano Hazards Program is launching a map-based application using Google technology to display hazards information. Map-based interfaces provide an overview of data while making subtle distribution patterns easier to detect, and allow users to quickly determine where hazards are in relation to major population and infrastructure centers. These map-based interfaces also provide ideal platforms for sharing information with colleagues, emergency managers, and the public. Selected examples will show how the USGS Volcano Hazards Program "Volcano Status Map" was created, and how field trips can be plotted together with driving directions.

Wednesday, December 12, 10:35 AM MW 2005 (IN32A-02)
How to Display Hazards and other Scientific Data Using Google Maps
by Dina Venezky

Controls on Seawater Intrusion, and Implications for Groundwater Management in Coastal Los Angeles

Development of ground water in coastal Los Angeles in the 20th century led to extensive water-level declines and associated seawater intrusion. USGS scientists have developed a solute-transport model to quantitatively test hydraulic implications and to assess the effects of alternative management strategies. Trial-and-error model calibration was conducted using measured water levels and chloride concentrations at nine wells along a stratigraphic cross-section. Results indicated that seismic faulting can provide a principal pathway for downward transport of sea water by juxtaposing low permeability layers with high permeability layers. Prior stratigraphic models for the region did not recognize this fault system. Three 20-year management scenarios were considered: status quo (with no change in water-management strategies), installation of a slurry wall, and raising inland water levels through increased injection or decreased pumpage. The first scenario resulted in increasing chloride concentrations, the second scenario slowed chloride migration with no reversal of seawater intrusion, and the third scenario reversed seawater intrusion but chloride remained in the deeper regions that would be lessened only by dilution over time.

Wednesday, December 12, 1:40 PM MS Exh Hall B 2007 (H33H-1712)
Stratigraphic Controls on Seawater Intrusion, and Implications for Ground-Water Management, Dominguez Gap Area of Los Angeles, California
by Adam Siade

Distribution of Perchlorate in Aquifers Used for Public Water Supply in California

Perchlorate has been detected in public-supply wells that tap aquifers in many parts of California. We compare data collected by the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) for regulatory purposes with data from the California State Water Resources Control Board Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Program (GAMA) conducted by the USGS The GAMA Priority Basin project samples primarily public-supply wells to characterize aquifer water quality for comparisons on regional and statewide scales. The two datasets yield different distributions of perchlorate detections, with a higher detection frequency in the Department of Public Health dataset that may be due to the high density of wells in a region with many industrial, aerospace, and military perchlorate users. Perchlorate has several sources in California: natural, legacy fertilizers, use of Colorado River water on the landscape, and industrial, aerospace, and military users. The distribution of perchlorate, combined with other water-quality and tracer data collected by GAMA, can aid in the determination of the relative importance of these various sources of perchlorate reaching groundwater in different regions of California.

Wednesday, December 12, 1:40 PM MS Exh Hall B (H33E-1688)
Distribution of Perchlorate in Aquifers Used for Public Water Supply in California
, USA, by Miranda Fram

Climate Change, Fire and Invasive Plants in California Ecosystems

Changes in fire regimes are predicted in many climate change scenarios. These changes are greatly affected by the types of fuels of the ecosystem. In addition to climate change, other factors including the presence of invasive species, building in the wild-land urban interface, and arson all create additional threats to ecosystem stability in California. Dr Jon Keeley will examine issues that may interact with climate change in ecosystems of very different fuel structure, including surface fire ponderosa pine forests and crown fire chaparral shrublands.

Wednesday, December 12, 4:30 PM MW 2006 (B34A-03)
Interactions Between Climate Change, Fire and Invasive Plants in California Ecosystems
by Jon Keeley

Effects of Corn-Based Ethanol Production on the Nation's Streams

Corn grain-based ethanol production nearly doubled over the past five years in response to energy security concerns and the use of ethanol as a gasoline additive. We simulate the potential effects from the projected doubling of corn-based ethanol production by 2016 on nitrogen and phosphorus loads in major streams of the conterminous United States and the coastal delivery of those nutrients.

Thursday, December 13, 8:00 AM - 12:20 PM MS Exh Hall B (B41B-0463)
Assessing the Effects of Corn-Based Ethanol Production on Stream Water Quality
by Richard Alexander

Google Mapplets For Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity

The USGS Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Programs monitor, assess, and issue warnings of natural hazards. Users can access hazards information through USGS web pages, RSS feeds, and now through USGS Mapplets. The new Mapplets allow third-party data layers to be added on top of Google maps and enable viewing of both real-time earthquakes and current volcanic activity on the same map for the first time.

Thursday, December 13, 1:40 PM MS Exh Hall (IN43A-0901)
Google Mapplets for Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity
by Scott Haefner

Coastal Response of a Shallow Sediment Mound Offshore of Ocean Beach, near the Golden Gate Inlet

Shoreline erosion along Ocean Beach, located south of the Golden Gate inlet, is an eminent problem threatening viable infrastructure. In an effort to reduce the erosion, dredged material has been placed within the nearshore region immediately offshore of the erosion "hot-spot" during three annual operations. As part of an effort to understand the physical processes causing morphologic evolution in the inner shelf and nearshore regions, a model simulating tidal currents and transformation of waves from offshore to the nearshore region has been calibrated and validated with field data. The model is used to investigate nearshore morphodynamics including the development of bars, displacement of material locally introduced to the system, and movement of the inferred shoreline position on various time-scales. Shoreline changes in response to regularly scheduled placement of sediment and the response to varying offshore wave conditions are also investigated.

Thursday, December 13, 8:00 AM MS Exh Hall B (H41B-0510)
Coastal Morphodynamic Response of a Shallow Sediment Mound Forced by Strong Tidal Currents and Large Waves
by Li Erikson

Storm Rainfall Conditions for Floods and Debris Flows from Recently Burned Basins in Southwestern Colorado and Southern California

Debris flows generated during rainstorms on recently burned hill slopes have destroyed lives and property throughout the western U. S. Unlike debris flows that start as landslides, these events have no discrete initiation sources and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Rainfall conditions that triggered post-fire debris flows have been documented for burned areas in Colorado and southern California, and thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these areas have been developed, providing guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response under similar rainfall conditions.

Thursday, December 13, 10:20 AM MW 3008 (H43F-1692)
Storm Rainfall Conditions for Floods and Debris Flows from Recently Burned Basins in southwestern Colorado and Southern California by S H Cannon

High-Res LiDAR Topography of the Plate-Boundary Faults in Northern California

More than 1500 km² of airborne LiDAR data in northern California provides high-resolution topographic data of the most major strike-slip faults in the region. The coverage includes the San Andreas Fault from its northern hand near shelter code to near Parkfield, as well as the Rodgers Creek, Hayward, Maacama, Calaveras, Green Valley, Paicines, and San Gregorio Faults. Data coverage is typically 1 km in width, centered on the fault, with wider coverage in areas of fault complexity to gain a better understanding of off-fault deformation associated with the transition zone between the transform margin and the Cascadia subduction zone. These data will allow more accurate mapping of fault traces in regions where the vegetation canopy has hampered this effort in the past, and will provide an opportunity to locate potential sites for detailed paleoseismic studies aimed at providing slip rates and event chronologies.

Thursday, December 13, 2:55 PM MW 3003 (G43D-06)
High-Resolution LiDAR Topography of the Plate-Boundary Faults in Northern California
by Carol Prentice

Kilauea Volcano: the 2007 Father's Day Eruption

The most recent Kilauea eruption events have been documented in unprecedented detail through Hawaiian Volcano Observatory continuous monitoring of earthquakes, gas emissions, and deformation using webcam and time-lapse cameras, tilt meters, and GPS networks, and by utilizing various satellite sensors. Two special sessions, V51H and V553A, will focus on this current eruption. The following two talks presented in these sessions will focus on these events and their interpretation by USGS and academic scientists.

Kilauea's Ongoing Eruption: 25th Year Brings Major Changes

2007 marks the 25th year of nearly continuous eruption on Kilauea's east rift zone, punctuated by episodic high lava fountains which built the Pu' 'O'o cone during the first three years of the eruption, ending in 1986. Collapse of this cone has been ongoing for the past two decades, and has been marked by a switch of volcanic activity to a more passive effusion of lava forming the Kupaianaha shield. The last 15 years have been characterized by the formation of relatively stable tube systems, carrying lava to the ocean about 9 km away. The "Father's Day" intrusion last June robbed the supply of magma to Pu' 'O'o, resulting in collapse of the crater floor. Lava returned to Pu' 'O'o and began refilling the collapsed crater in early July creating a lava pond which suddenly drained when a series of fissures opened on the east flank of the cone. The new activity developed into a system of perched lava ponds, and by the end of July the easternmost pond evolved into an open channel feeding a series of lava flows heading around the north side of the Kupaianaha shield. Unless the eruption supply rate increases, 'a'a flows fed by the open channel will likely travel no more than few kilometers from the vent and pose no threat to those living downslope. If the eruptive style changes, however, to one characterized by tube-fed pahoehoe lava, then downslope communities could be directly impacted.

Friday, December 14, 8:00 AM MW 3008 (V51H-01)
Kilauea's Ongoing Eruption: 25th Year Brings Major Changes
by T R Orr

Mechanisms and Consequences of the Father's Day Intrusion at Kilauea Volcano

The Father's Day eruption and associated intrusion took place within a 10 km segment of Kilauea east rift zone -- a segment that has had more numerous eruptions and intrusions than any other of comparable length during the past 200-1000 years. For most of the past 1000 years, eruptions were centered at Kilauea's summit, with significant but lesser activity along the rift zones. A large summit deflation in 1924 ended the nearly continuous lava lake in Halemaumau, eventually leading to the past five decades of dominantly east rift zone activity. The complex structural setting likely affects the frequency of magnetic activity in the segment. The area near Makaopuhi Crater and Kane Nui o Hamo is a particular focus, inferred since the mid-1960s to harbor a shallow magma reservoir. Since the late 1960s, widening has been measured across the active area during eruptions and intrusions.

Friday, December 14, 9:45 AM MW 3008 (V51H-08)
Setting of the Father's Day Eruption at Kilauea
by D A Swanson

Tsunami Hazard along the U.S. East Coast

With its relative seismic quiescence and broad continental shelf, the eastern seaboard of the U.S. is unlikely to be overrun by a tsunami anytime soon. Yet the possibility does exist. The author will discuss the conditions necessary for an earthquake-induced submarine landslide that could generate a tsunami along the U.S. East Coast.

Friday, December 14, 8:45 AM MW 3010 (S51C-04)
Assessing tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast using relationships between submarine landslides and earthquakes
by Uri ten Brink

Hydrothermal Fluid Flow: Implications for Heat and Mass Transport and Deformation of the Yellowstone Caldera

Vertical and horizontal movements of the ground surface in Yellowstone have traditionally been modeled by the addition of magma into shallow reservoirs. The possibility that much of the movement may be induced by circulating groundwater and CO2-rich gases emitted from a deep magma have largely been neglected. USGS scientists have extended previous mathematical simulations of multiphase (liquid and gas) groundwater flow and crustal deformation. For a plausible range of simulation parameters, the mathematical model simulated ground surface displacement rates similar to those observed in Yellowstone, suggesting that ascent of magmatic gases towards the shallow crust and multiphase dynamics within the shallow hydrothermal system may explain some of the deformation observed in Yellowstone.

Friday, December 14, 9:20 AM MW 3001 (V51F-06)
Numerical Simulations of Multi-phase, Multi-component Hydrothermal Fluid Flow: Implications for Heat and Mass Transport and Deformation of the Yellowstone Caldera
by Michael Hutnak

Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Progress

Nearly three years following the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a new Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS) is under development to provide early warnings for tsunamis and a framework for disaster management and response systems. The IOTWS has utilized the leadership and technical expertise of many countries including Indonesia, Thailand, India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, together with assistance from international partners. Come see how inter-agency cooperation has allowed "in-country capacity building," so that individual nations can be self-sustaining in their response efforts.

Friday, December 14, 1:30 PM MS Exh Hall B (S53A-1022)
Progress in developing an Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS)
by Shane Detweiler

Transport Processes of Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Pesticides in Five Agricultural Watersheds in the United States

Transport processes affecting agricultural chemicals in the hydrological cycle were investigated at five watersheds in major agricultural settings, representing both different agricultural practices and climatic settings of the United States. The study design was to provide a mass-balance of water and agricultural chemicals originating from the atmosphere or irrigation water along a ground-water flow path, and discharge of the ground water to a stream. Although overland flow associated with storms transported the bulk of nutrient and pesticide compounds to streams in most of the watersheds, ground-water transport was also important for annual loads of nitrate and pesticide degradates. Total nitrogen was the most important nutrient with respect to mass loading in streams, and pesticide transport was usually greatest during the first few rainfall events following application. Although subsurface transport of phosphorus has not been given much attention in previous studies of agricultural chemicals, concentrations were elevated in the unsaturated zone and along ground-water flow paths to streams in some of the watersheds, and contributed to the annual stream load.

Friday, December 14, 1:40 PM MW 2016 (H53J-01)
Transport processes of nitrogen, phosphorus, and pesticides in five agricultural watersheds in the United States
by Joseph Domagalski

LiqueMap: A Real-Time Postearthquake map of Liquefaction Probability

LiqueMap is a proposed map for real-time distribution over the internet after a large earthquake. It predicts the spatial distribution of the probability of liquefaction in the area subjected to strong ground motion. It relies on peak ground accelerations produced by ShakeMap and the methodology for probabilistic liquefaction hazard mapping that was developed by Holzer and others (USGS OFR 02-296, 2006). LiqueMap should be useful to utility and transportation agencies for identifying areas of potential damage to lifelines from liquefaction-induced permanent ground deformation. When overlain on maps of vulnerable pipelines and other lifelines, LiqueMap can help these entities set priorities for post-earthquake inspections.

Friday, December 14, 8:00 AM MS Exh Hall B (S51A-0225)
LiqueMap: A Real-Time Postearthquake map of Liquefaction Probability
by Thomas Noce

USGS ShakeMap Developments, Implementation, and Derivative Tools

Ongoing development and enhancements of ShakeMap, a system for automatically generating maps of ground shaking intensity in the minutes following an earthquake, are presented and discussed. The rapid availability of these maps is of particular value to emergency response organizations, utilities, insurance companies, government decision-makers, the news media, and the general public. Robust ShakeMap systems have been implemented in several new regions within the western United States, additional systems are in development, and ShakeMap systems are being utilized in Switzerland, Romania, and Turkey, and other countries. Global ShakeMaps for the rapid evaluation of significant earthquakes are discussed, as well as several derivative tools including ShakeCast, and a shaking hazard map for the past 30 years based on approximately 3900 earthquake ShakeMaps of historic earthquakes.

Friday, December 14, 8:00 AM MS Exh Hall B (S51A-0211)
USGS ShakeMap Developments, Implementation, and Derivative Tools
by D J Wald

ShakeCast: Automating and Improving the Use of ShakeMap for Post-Earthquake Decision-Making and Response

ShakeCast is a freely available, post-earthquake situational awareness application that automatically retrieves earthquake shaking data from ShakeMap and compares intensity measurements against individual user facilities, sends notifications of potential damage, and generates facility damage maps and other Web-based products for emergency managers and responders.

Friday, December 14, 8:00 AM MS Exh Hall B (S51A-0212)
ShakeCast: Automating and Improving the Use of ShakeMap for Post-Earthquake Decision-Making and Response
by K Lin, D J Wald

Yellowstone and Long Valley -Two Restless Calderas

Three large calderas in the conterminous United States have explosively erupted large volumes of material within the last 2 million years -Yellowstone caldera in Wyoming, Long Valley caldera in California, and Valles caldera in New Mexico. Pronounced unrest episodes at Yellowstone and Long Valley calderas over the past three decades has stimulated extensive research on these two closely monitored volcanic features. Yellowstone caldera is underlain by long-lived upper mantle hotspot that has fed a series of caldera forming eruptions including three from the Yellowstone caldera system in the last 2 million years, the most recent being 600,000 years ago with the latest magmatic eruption in that area being 70,000 years ago. By comparison, Long Valley caldera is underlain by a relatively modest hotspot influencing a system that that has fed multiple eruptions over the past 4 million years and a single caldera-forming eruption 760,000 years ago. The most recent eruptions from the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Domes volcanic field occurred 600 and 250 years ago. Unrest at both calderas is characterized by strong regional seismicity, recurring intra-caldera earthquake swarms, deformation measured in decimeters, changes in the hydrothermal systems, and elevated CO2 emissions. Extra-caldera seismicity at both locations is more energetic and persistent than intra-caldera activity underscoring the importance of tectonic-magmatic interactions. Deformation at Yellowstone has shown alternating episodes of inflation and subsidence while that in Long Valley has shown several episodes of rapid uplift with negligible subsidence.

Friday, December 14, 9:50 AM MW 3001 (V51F-08)
Yellowstone and Long Valley -a Comparison of Two Restless Calderas
by David Hill

The Consequences of Increased Magma Supply to Kilauea Volcano

The summer of 2007 was a time of intense activity at Kilauea following approximately 4 years of summit inflation that included uplift and extension of the caldera. In mid-June, a dike intruded the east rift zone causing a pause in the eruption of Pu 'u 'O' o vent on the east rift zone and collapse of the vent floor. The inflated state of the summit, relative timing of summit deflation and east rift zone extension, and abundant co-intrusive earthquake activity suggest forcible intrusion of magma. Lava returned to Pu 'u 'O' o in early July, forming a lake that gradually refilled much of the collapsed crater. On July 21, the lava lake suddenly drained, the lava cone began to collapse, and a series of discontinuous eruptive fissures opened on the east flank of Pu 'u 'O' o. Several factors working together suggest that the magma supply rate to Kilauea's shallow magmatic system approximately doubled during 2003-2006. Subsequent volcanic and earthquake activity, including the events of mid-2007, are probably a result of this increased magma supply.

Friday, December 14, 10:20 AM MW 3008 (V52B-01)
The Consequences of Increased Magma Supply to Kilauea Volcano, Hawai`I
by Michael Poland

Who Needs Environmental Monitoring?

Environmental monitoring is often criticized as being unscientific, too expensive, and wasteful. While some monitoring studies do suffer from these problems, there are also some highly successful long-term monitoring programs that have provided important scientific advances and crucial information for environmental policy. Characteristics of effective monitoring programs are discussed and it is contended that monitoring should be considered a fundamental complement of environmental science and policy. Scientists who develop monitoring programs are urged to plan in advance to ensure high-quality data, accessibility, and cost effectiveness, and government agencies and other funding institutions are urged to make greater commitments to increasing the amount and long-term stability of funding for environmental monitoring programs.

Friday, December 14, 1:40 PM MW 3002 (GC53B-01)
Who Needs Environmental Monitoring?
By Douglas Burns

An Update on the Emerging USA National Phenology Network: Status, Goals and Objectives, and Collaborative Opportunities

Although phenology is a far-reaching component of environmental science, it is poorly understood relative to other ecological patterns and processes. For example, it's unclear how environmental factors affect the phenology of different organisms, and how those factors vary in importance on different spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, it's likely that phenology affects the abundance and diversity of organisms, and their function and interactions in the environment, especially their effects on fluxes in water, energy, and chemical elements at various scales. With sufficient observations and understanding, phenology can be used as a predictor for other processes and variables of importance at local to global scales, and could drive a variety of ecological forecast models with both scientific and practical applications. The USA National Phenology Network will integrate with other observations, products, and technologies, and a new sense of public participation, to evaluate ongoing environmental changes.

Friday, December 14, 4:00 PM MW 2007 (B54A-01)
An Update on the Emerging USA National Phenology Network: Status, Goals and Objectives, and Collaborative Opportunities
by Jake Weltzin


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