Summer rains have remained steady over the past 20 years, but are less than historic highs. Temperature has increased, and while the farmland per person is decreasing, population growth has been offset with improved yields.
Long-term reduction in rainfall and increasing temperature threaten Chad's future food production prospects; combined with rapid population growth and zones of substantial conflict, increasing numbers of people will be at risk.
Summer rains have remained steady for the past 20 years, but are below the long-term average. Current population and agricultural trends indicate increasing yields have offset population expansion, keeping per capita cereal production steady.
While summer rains have increased during the past 20 years, temperatures have increased as well, amplifying the effects of droughts. Crop yields are low but the population is growing, pointing to rising food insecurity.
Modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures, declining farmland per person, along with trends in population and agriculture could lead to a 30% reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.
Long-term reduction in rainfall and increasing temperature threaten Uganda's future food production prospects; combined with rapid population growth these factors could increase the number of people who are at risk during the next 20 years.
Analysis of sea-surface temperature in the Indian Ocean shows that warming correlates with east African rainfall; the effect on atmospheric convection and precipitation over the Indian Ocean is greater than that associated with El NiÃ±o (ENSO).